First Loss Fallout: How Will Kentucky Cope?

Well, that was fast.

One week ago today, the BBL wrote here that “greatness can come in a flash, and be taken away even quicker.” No, we didn’t have Devan Downey in mind when we uttered those words, but we might as well have been discussing the diminutive South Carolina guard after the way he completely dictated the game in Kentucky’s deflating loss Tuesday night in Columbia, S.C.

True, many in the Big Blue Nation are having their trademark panic attack over the loss and yes, some in the national media are already taking on a rather satisfied air now that the “will UK go undefeated” stories have come to an end (without naming names, there are at least two “experts” under the employ of the worldwide leader who seem a little too happy about the upset).

But the real question is, how bad did this loss hurt and what did we as observers learn from it?

A Perfect Night for an Upset
From the start, it felt like it was going to be a rough night for the Cats. Those who watched the game on ESPN probably recall at least two or three occasions when commentator Jimmy Dykes said something to the effect of: in order to pull the upset, X, Y or Z have to happen. It’s safe to say now that they did.

Here are a few numbers from the game that must seem a little surprising to anyone who has watched Kentucky with even a passing interest this season:

• Patrick Patterson scored 5 points, Darius Miller had zero
• The Kentucky bench was woeful, scoring only 7 points in a total of about 48 minutes
• The Cats shot 38% from the field, about 12 percentage points below their season average
• South Carolina blocked 8 shots to UK’s 5 (we think this is the first time all year the opponent has had more blocks)

This is only part of the story, however. More specifically, this is just what the numbers tell us. To anyone who watched the game, the problems ran much deeper. The Cats were outhustled. SC beat them to loose balls. The big men for the home team were far more aggressive. UK lobbed lackadaisical passes on more than one occasion late in the game. The team in blue missed a number of chip shots and important free throws.

And frankly, Kentucky also got unlucky. There were several critical moments that told the story of the game. The first came at around the 7:00 minute mark, when a loose ball that looked like it might turn into a UK steal and breakaway instead dropped into the lap of Brandis Raley-Ross who converted an easy layup.

A minute later, with Kentucky down two, Darnell Dodson got a backcourt steal but somehow missed the uncontested dunk. One minute after that, in what might have been the play of the year so far in the SEC, Downey caught an inbounds pass and nailed a ridiculous baseline fadeaway at the shot clock buzzer. He got fouled on the play and hit the free throw to put SC up three, a lead which they held for good.

What Can We Take Away?
People often talk about a team’s first loss serving as a “good loss” for the long term health of the season. I don’t necessarily agree with this sentiment, but I do think that, for a roster as young as Kentucky’s, the pressure of trying to be the first team in 34 years to win every game could potentially be more of a burden than a blessing. Now that it’s out of the way, can we expect to see more losses?

Wall and Bledsoe need to clean it up. We’ve discussed it all year. UK’s backcourt is as spectacular as any we’ve seen in the nation, but the turnovers and reckless play could really come back to haunt them. This was definitely the case versus the Gamecocks. Nine turnovers and a lot of bad decision making from UK’s guards hurt.

Patterson and Miller, where did you go? Miller followed up his best game as a Wildcat with possibly his worst. He continues to be an enigma. Patterson has been steady all year but has laid eggs now in both of his last two trips to Columbia. He needs to play tougher and look to get involved in the offense. Kentucky should go to him more often as well.

Must stop dribble penetration. It may be true that UK won’t be facing too many more Downeys this year, but after the “olay” defensive effort last night, the Cats will need to stop guards who get to the rack. This weekend’s game vs. Vandy will be a good first test, as guards Jermaine Beal and Jeffrey Taylor can get to the hoop as well as shoot from deep.

Bench production is key. We already mentioned it, but Kentucky will need its bench to do more than what it showed in this one. Ramon Harris, Perry Stevenson, DeAndre Liggins and Daniel Orton combined to take only three shots and commit five fouls. That’s inexcusable.

Lowpost lapse. Things started out well. Cousins, Patterson and Orton scored 17 of UK’s 29 first half points and had a distinct rebound advantage over a depleted SC frontcourt. But it was a tale of two halves as UK’s bigs wilted down the stretch and allowed Carolina’s no-name big men to block and alter shots and ultimately win the rebounding margin.

BBL Take
The Cats have the nation’s most talented roster, top to bottom, in our estimation. The BBL thinks this will ultimately be borne out by the fact that as many as six or seven players on the current roster have a legitimate shot to be selected in the NBA draft.

Up to this point, Calipari has done a masterful job of taking this talent and meshing it, despite a difficult mixture of holdovers from the former regime and fresh-faced youngsters. But Kentucky must play better. Road games at Mississippi State, Vandy, Tennessee and Georgia should put them to the test.

Sounds easy to say, but we think of the South Carolina loss as more of an aberration than a sign of major trouble. Despite some of the alarming trends in this lackluster performance, Kentucky still managed to keep the game within one possession down to the final 10 seconds. Chalk this one up to a bad night on the road where the opposing team got every bounce and Downey, despite his small stature, stood taller than everyone else on the court in refusing to let his team lose.

There will be better days.