Kentucky Wildcats Enter Stretch Run

After impressive back-to-back road wins this past week, the Kentucky Wildcats improved their record to 26-1 overall and 11-1 in the SEC and, more importantly, virtually assured themselves of a No. 1 seed when the NCAA tournament brackets are announced March 14.

In their win over Vandy Saturday night, the Cats once again showed the nation that they are capable of beating good teams even when not playing their best basketball. While Kentucky’s youngsters were far from a portrait of maturity for most of the evening, they simply found a way to win the game at crunch time.

So, where to next for Kentucky?

Finishing Strong
The Cats could very well lose another game or two before the Big Dance. But an SEC regular season championship would be wrapped up with two more victories. The Cats will start the quest to close out strong with a revenge game this Thursday vs. South Carolina at Rupp. Needless to say, the Gamecocks, a horrible road team as it is, will not have the element of surprise in this one and, barring a superhuman effort from Devan Downey, we like Kentucky to roll in this one.

Then it’s back on the road for the Cats—at Tennessee on Feb. 27 and at Georgia on March 3. The Vols have shown they can beat anyone at home, as evidenced by their January victory over top ranked Kansas.

Georgia, despite a 4-8 SEC record, has been surprisingly tough at home, boasting a 12-3 record in home games, with impressive victories over the likes of Vandy, Tennessee and Georgia Tech. If there is a trap game left on the Cats schedule, this is it. UGA gave Kentucky a run for its money last month at Rupp and cannot be underestimated. The Cats finish at home March 7th on senior day against Florida.

The BBL feels that UK can actually lose two of these four and still earn a No. 1 seed, provided they don’t fall in the first round of the SEC tournament. At this point, however, we think UK is a lock to notch the school’s 12th 30-win season.

Tourney Prospects
Right now, the leading contenders for the top four seeds in the tourney include Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Purdue, probably in that order. The next four seeds look likely to come from Villanova, Duke, Kansas State, Michigan State, West Virginia, Ohio State and Georgetown.

The four tournament regionals are in Salt Lake City, St. Louis, Houston and Syracuse. Kansas, as the potential overall top seed, looks like a lock to get sent down the road to St. Louis. After that, things get a little more interesting.

Syracuse, assuming they hold onto a top seed, cannot play a regional at home per NCAA rules, so the Orange will have to be sent either to Houston or Salt Lake City. Because Kentucky will almost certainly be one of the top two overall seeds, the selection committee will want to keep them as close to home as possible, which more than likely rules out SLC.

So Cat fans, for any of you planning to travel, we recommend limiting your search to two cities—Syracuse (667 miles from Lexington) or Houston (1,070 miles away). The BBL’s best guess is that UK will be sent to the more natural confines of the South Regional in Houston, while Syracuse will be sent west and the fourth No. 1 (Purdue, Villanova or Duke) will go to the Carrier Dome.

As for the first round, the Cats will almost certainly play in Milwaukee, which is the closest venue to home for Kentucky. UK has never played a tournament game in Milwaukee, but if there is any bright side to this venue, it’s that Kentucky is assured to not play Marquette in the first or second round. Marquette, of course, has knocked the Cats out of the tourney the last three times the programs have met. So there’s that.

BBL’s Take
It’s difficult to start speculating about actual opponents at this juncture. But we can talk a little about what kind of environments the Cats are likely to see, and what kinds fans should hope they do not.

Probably the scariest type of team Kentucky can be matched up with is one that plays physical halfcourt defense and can shoot well from the perimeter. UK has done a good job neutralizing good perimeter shooting teams of late (Vanderbilt and Mississippi State last week, in particular). But it should be noted that Kentucky could have easily lost both of those games had either team done just a tad bit better than a combined 12 for 55 from three-point land. Teams that fit this bill include Syracuse, Kansas and West Virginia, but none of them would be likely to play UK before a regional final.

In a tournament-style setting, Kentucky will obviously be faced with officials used to doing games in other conferences. This is a bit of a crap shoot, but officials from the Big Ten or Big East may be used to calling low-scoring games with a lot of whistles blown. In general, there tend to be more fouls called during the NCAA tournament than the regular season. This would force the Cats to shoot more free throws and potentially subject the vaunted front court to foul trouble.

With the win or go home format, Kentucky’s considerable youth will be faced with the pressure of more intense moments. Moreover, playing games on short rest and with little time to prepare for different styles could have an impact on a team that has at times lacked mental focus.

The first season on John Calipari’s watch has been nothing short of magnificent. But for a program with a tradition as proud as Kentucky’s, what happens in March is what ultimately defines the season.