The Big Blue Lowdown

And so the regular season comes down to this. The Kentucky Wildcats, 24-1 overall and 9-1 in the SEC, embark this week on a brutal six-game stretch that will test the mettle of this young team and go a long way toward dictating the fate of the 2009-10 season.

Four of the games will be on the road, and five out of the six come versus teams still deserving strong consideration for NCAA tournament bids. None figure to be cake walks.

Murderer’s row starts off Tuesday night in Starkville against a dangerous Mississippi State team that the BBL feels is one of the few squads in the nation not at a disadvantage athletically when matching up with the Cats. When breaking down the schedule earlier this season, we actually predicted a loss for Kentucky in this game. Though the Bulldogs have struggled this year, nothing changes in our assessment of how these teams match up.

Personnel at a Glance
MSU is a tall, rangy team with a lot of active leapers who will rebound, scrap and block shots. Defensively they are the best team in the conference in points allowed, and it all revolves around 6-9 center Jarvis Varnado, who is 16 blocks shy of the NCAA record.

Offensively, point guard Dee Bost has a quick first step and can get into the lane or pull up and hit outside jumpers. He’s coming off a huge game vs. Auburn where he scored 32 points and hit seven threes. State has a bevy of wing scorers in Phil Turner, Ravern Johnson and Barry Stewart, none of whom are scared to pull the trigger from long range.

They go about eight deep and have an assortment of good rebounders, starting with Varnado, who pulls down an SEC leading 11.3 per game.

Plan of Attack
Mississippi State will attempt to drive the lane early to loosen up Kentucky’s perimeter defense. If the Bulldogs can find creases in UK’s halfcourt defense, the Cats will need to watch for kick outs and be ready to close on three point shooters. None of State’s shooters need a lot of daylight to pull.

On the defensive side of the ball, MSU will likely follow the now standard blueprint for teams playing Kentucky and run a 2-3 matchup zone with Varnado manning the middle. Varnado is giving up a couple inches and about 30 pounds to DeMarcus Cousins, but with his condor like wingspan and uncanny timing, he will be a tough obstacle to shoot over for Cousins or any Wildcat who gets into the lane.

A big X-factor in this game could be MSU’s Kodi Augustus, a broad shouldered 6-8 power forward who can play out on the perimeter. He’ll likely draw Patrick Patterson away from the basket and look to slash.

All in all, it’s likely to be raining three point shots for most of the game, and if MSU’s outside jumpers are falling, they have a good shot to win.

BBL’s Take
Kentucky will be facing a hostile crowd in “Stark-Vegas” as the Bulldogs need this victory to put themselves squarely into the NCAA field of 65. MSU has struggled through the middle part of the SEC season, but hasn’t lost a conference home game since last year. Without question this will be the toughest road setting the Cats have played in up to this point.

Kentucky will need to get out to a good start and hope to get some transition buckets to silence a raucous crowd. State will try to take away the penetration of John Wall and Eric Bledsoe, but if the Cats can find a way to get the ball to the middle and pull Varnado away from the basket, they should find a lot of open looks.

UK will also need to attack the zone more effectively than they did against Tennessee last Saturday. This means Wall and Bledsoe being more patient with the ball and recognizing when they can draw two defenders at a time to find open gaps from the wing. If Kentucky has a good shooting night, they should escape with a huge conference road win and take another big step toward a top seed in the tourney.