We’re going to play Devil’s Advocate with the Big Blue Nation here and say, “uh oh” with regard to the Kentucky Wildcats next opponent in the 2010 NCAA Tournament. The team of which we speak is the Cornell Big Red.
Banner Carrier of the Ivy League
Cornell just overwhelmed and discombobulated two teams who spent the entire season in or around the Top 25. The games weren’t close. They dictated their style and their amoeba defensive zone prevented both Temple and Wisconsin from entering the ball in the post.
Cornell plays 12 to 15 guys and subs players in waves. It’s difficult to know who is on the floor at any given time when trying to guard them. It also hurts that they all shoot the ball equally well from behind the arc. Ryan Wittman has an NBA pedigree and can shoot from anywhere inside 30 feet. He must be face guarded and pressured all over the floor.
Cornell is incredibly cerebral and well coached. They will be a difficult matchup for anyone due to their precision passing and excellent shooting. They run a complicated circular offense that starts when they enter the ball into their 7-1 center Jeff Foote. He is also an excellent passer and is equally adept at pitching and catching, kicking out and hitting cutters.
DeMarcus Cousins and Daniel Orton will have to do a good job of keeping Foote in front of them. At the end he likes to whirl and dunk one handed after faking a number of passes. This guy appears to be a pro player and UK should not underestimate him.
“If” Kentucky plays outside-in (rarely have they done this consistently this year), they should win by 10 to 15 points due to physicality and size in the post. But if Cornell dares UK to shoot by giving up long threes in gaps, it could be a very long night if the Cats shoot poorly. Eric Bledsoe will need to physically overwhelm their point guard Louis Dale, who is heady and surprisingly athletic and quick. He can also shoot it off the bounce, evidenced by his 26 points against Wisconsin.
BBL’s Take
We don’t see this game as a blow out in any way. In fact, we think this could be the last potential “bad matchup” UK has remaining on their course for Banner #8. Cornell does not slow the game down. They take the first good or open shot they can get. If they shoot well and UK shoots poorly, anything can happen.
After Cornell, neither West Virginia nor Washington match up well with UK. Both play similar styles and lack great size in the post. They will wear out before the 10:00 minute mark in the second half. WVU doesn’t typically get great backcourt play, and U-Dub’s guards are small.
The BBL has found it interesting that Calipari has lengthened his bench in the first two games of the NCAA tournament. He appears ready to give Perry Stephenson and Ramon Harris extended minutes along with Orton, Darnell Dodson and DeAndre Liggins. UK is now employing a rotation with 10 players capable of seeing double digit minutes in the tournament. This type of depth will only help them in their four potential remaining games.
The BBL believes if Kentucky beats Cornell, they are headed to Indy and matched up with a team they’ll be favored by at least seven points. But that’s why they play the games.
The Kentucky Wildcats will battle Wake Forest tonight in a second round matchup that should be plenty entertaining to a primetime national TV audience.
Here are a few of the BBL’s thoughts on this game.
1) Wake Forest’s chances start and end with point guard Ish Smith. Smith, fresh off a game winning jumper to beat Texas in OT Thursday, is the playmaker and pace setter for the Demon Deacons. He is athletic and quick and should be a fine challenge for Kentucky’s young guards. Keep an eye on how he handles John Wall.
2) Eric Bledsoe was hot in UK’s 100-71 triumph over East Tennessee State Thursday. His eight for nine shooting from behind the arc paced the Cats. If he can keep up this kind of pace, UK will be tough to beat.
3) How will Kentucky’s bigs deal with Al Farouq Aminu? Aminu is an NBA player with a wide assortment of skills. He can shoot, get to the rack, post up and crash the boards. Seeing him battle Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins should be fun.
4) Kentucky could make a big statement if Wake Forest decides to run. The Demon Deacons have struggled on defense at times this year and if they attempt to push the tempo, they could be in for a long night.
5) The talent disparity here is not as vast as some may think. Wake has a good group of big and athletic ballers who will physically match up well with the Cats embarrassingly deep roster.
BBL’s Take
We think that Wake Forest, with its experienced backcourt and overall depth of quality talent, will stay close with Kentucky for much of this one. If they try to push the pace, we like UK’s ability to dominate in transition. If Kentucky is hitting perimeter jump shots, we think the Cats can end up winning by double figures. But if Wake slows it down and makes this a nip-tuck halfcourt game, we could be looking at another nail biter. Still, we’re saying Cats by 12.
The Vols and Cats play their rubber match today, and a lot more is on the line this time.
Both teams are securely in the field of 65, but a shot at an SEC tournament championship hangs in the balance Saturday.
Kentucky needs to shoot well and control the paint if they are to pull off the big W.
We’ll have coverage after the game.
And so the regular season comes down to this. The Kentucky Wildcats, 24-1 overall and 9-1 in the SEC, embark this week on a brutal six-game stretch that will test the mettle of this young team and go a long way toward dictating the fate of the 2009-10 season.
Four of the games will be on the road, and five out of the six come versus teams still deserving strong consideration for NCAA tournament bids. None figure to be cake walks.
Murderer’s row starts off Tuesday night in Starkville against a dangerous Mississippi State team that the BBL feels is one of the few squads in the nation not at a disadvantage athletically when matching up with the Cats. When breaking down the schedule earlier this season, we actually predicted a loss for Kentucky in this game. Though the Bulldogs have struggled this year, nothing changes in our assessment of how these teams match up.
Personnel at a Glance
MSU is a tall, rangy team with a lot of active leapers who will rebound, scrap and block shots. Defensively they are the best team in the conference in points allowed, and it all revolves around 6-9 center Jarvis Varnado, who is 16 blocks shy of the NCAA record.
Offensively, point guard Dee Bost has a quick first step and can get into the lane or pull up and hit outside jumpers. He’s coming off a huge game vs. Auburn where he scored 32 points and hit seven threes. State has a bevy of wing scorers in Phil Turner, Ravern Johnson and Barry Stewart, none of whom are scared to pull the trigger from long range.
They go about eight deep and have an assortment of good rebounders, starting with Varnado, who pulls down an SEC leading 11.3 per game.
Plan of Attack
Mississippi State will attempt to drive the lane early to loosen up Kentucky’s perimeter defense. If the Bulldogs can find creases in UK’s halfcourt defense, the Cats will need to watch for kick outs and be ready to close on three point shooters. None of State’s shooters need a lot of daylight to pull.
On the defensive side of the ball, MSU will likely follow the now standard blueprint for teams playing Kentucky and run a 2-3 matchup zone with Varnado manning the middle. Varnado is giving up a couple inches and about 30 pounds to DeMarcus Cousins, but with his condor like wingspan and uncanny timing, he will be a tough obstacle to shoot over for Cousins or any Wildcat who gets into the lane.
A big X-factor in this game could be MSU’s Kodi Augustus, a broad shouldered 6-8 power forward who can play out on the perimeter. He’ll likely draw Patrick Patterson away from the basket and look to slash.
All in all, it’s likely to be raining three point shots for most of the game, and if MSU’s outside jumpers are falling, they have a good shot to win.
BBL’s Take
Kentucky will be facing a hostile crowd in “Stark-Vegas” as the Bulldogs need this victory to put themselves squarely into the NCAA field of 65. MSU has struggled through the middle part of the SEC season, but hasn’t lost a conference home game since last year. Without question this will be the toughest road setting the Cats have played in up to this point.
Kentucky will need to get out to a good start and hope to get some transition buckets to silence a raucous crowd. State will try to take away the penetration of John Wall and Eric Bledsoe, but if the Cats can find a way to get the ball to the middle and pull Varnado away from the basket, they should find a lot of open looks.
UK will also need to attack the zone more effectively than they did against Tennessee last Saturday. This means Wall and Bledsoe being more patient with the ball and recognizing when they can draw two defenders at a time to find open gaps from the wing. If Kentucky has a good shooting night, they should escape with a huge conference road win and take another big step toward a top seed in the tourney.
The stage is set for a memorable night in Lexington, Kentucky.
If you didn’t see it, the Kentucky faithful created a scene this morning at ESPN’s College Gameday, putting 20,000 plus fans in Rupp Arena by 10 am.
Kentucky will meet Tennesee in less than an hour, in what should be one of the Cats stiffest tests, on paper, of the entire season. This is an excellent chance for the Cats to solidify their No. 1 seed resume in the eyes of the nation, and send a message to the rest of college basketball that they are for real.
Here are the keys to the game:
John Wall and Eric Bledsoe must make good decisions. One of the BBL’s concerns all year has been the mistake prone styles of the freshman backcourt duo. Sometimes it seems as if these two haven’t progressed very much with their ability to recognize what the defense is giving them. Both seem to have only one speed—turbo—and it has gotten them into trouble. If Wall and Bledsoe can manage tempo and take only what’s available on offense, Kentucky will be in good shape. Tennessee is sure to run some fullcourt pressure, but that could be a recipe for highlight reel, fast break funk for the Wildcats.
Kentucky will need to keep Tennessee from getting easy transition buckets and points in the paint. The Vols simply do not have a good shooting team. They have no pure shooters who can beat you consistently from deep. And their bigs are mostly finesse players. But they are long and athletic and have some guys who can slash and create shots around the rim. UT will likely pull Wayne Chism and Kenny Hall away from the basket on offense, and force DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and Daniel Orton to defend on the perimeter. If Tennessee consistently penetrates and sends guys to the rim to crash the offensive glass, they could make things interesting.
Kentucky should work the low post on offense in every halfcourt set. There is currently no one in the college game with a back to the basket offensive game like Big Cuz. No one. UK should feed him early and often. Cousins is a good passing big man, too, and if he is doubled, UK could have a field day getting cutters open in the paint. The overall team size and rebounding ability of Kentucky will play an important role, too. This is the type of game where even Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson could get some easy garbage buckets and layups as UT tries to collapse on Kentucky’s big men.
UK needs to show swagger and killer instinct. The Cats are confident. There will be a truly historic crowd on hand tonight and an environment capable of showing America the absolute height of college hoops excitement. The young Cats will need to overcome any early jitters and play with a sense of urgency and high energy. If they can build a big lead, we expect John Calipari to step on the gas to make a statement. There is no love loss between Coach Cal and Tennessee head man Bruce Pearl. This could be a golden opportunity for UK to show they can put even good team’s away.
BBL’s Take. Kentucky has every advantage. Tennessee plays an up-tempo pressing style. They want to run and showcase their athleticism. But they are lacking good ballhandlers and have no dead eye shooters. If they try to press UK into mistakes, they may see things get ugly, considering Kentucky’s track team personnel and what should be a raucous home crowd. If UT elects to slow it down and zone the Cats in a halfcourt game, DeAndre Liggins and Darnell Dodson will need to shoot well and the backcourt will need to keep mistakes to a minimum. We think even in this style of game, the Vols will struggle to score enough to win. We like the Cats chances of a big double digit victory, and frankly don’t see Tennessee being able to keep this one tight to the final horn. But stranger things have happened.
We offer up a few thoughts on the happenings that matter most to UK fans.
The Rebs Come to Town
Everything about this game screams trouble for the visitors. Sure, Mississippi is a solid team that has spent the bulk of the year ranked in the top 25. But frankly, Kentucky is a match-up nightmare for a banged up, undersized squad that will be traveling on short rest.
Ole Miss is coming off its worst loss of the season, falling at home Sunday night to Arkansas in a game where they were outrebounded 45-32 and dominated by the Razorbacks inside. Their interior struggles are compounded by the absence of center Reggie Buckner who will miss the UK game with an ankle injury. They’ll try to compensate for his absence with a quicker lineup, playing three or four guards at all times.
The Rebels’ dynamic backcourt duo of Chris Warren and Terrico White will need to have a great game if Ole Miss is to pull the shocker. White and Warren are dead-eye perimeter shooters who’ve combined for more than 100 threes on 39% shooting. But without a dangerous post game to rely on, they’ll find it tough to get open looks, as UK will likely park DeMarcus Cousins inside and cheat out on the perimeter defensively.
Kentucky’s long armed wings should make open looks a rarity for White and Warren, so the Rebels will need to get solid contributions from Eniel Polynice and Murphy Holloway, two athletic forwards who can get to the rack off the dribble. Ole Miss is athletic, but doesn’t possess the type of scrappy, shot blocking big men that helped South Carolina control the second half last week.
We look for Kentucky to really pound the ball inside and feed off the energy of a raucous crowd en route to a double-digit victory.
‘Poll’ Position
The number one ranking was fun while it lasted. After a week atop the polls, as expected, UK fell a few spots Monday, dropping to #3 in the ESPN-Coaches Poll and #4 in the AP.
The BBL takes little stock in the polls at this point. The SEC is not regarded as highly as many of the other “power” conferences and Kentucky’s signature out of conference wins are looking less than sterling at the moment (Louisville, UConn and UNC are earning headlines for their surprising collective futility.) So it’s no surprise that the Cats have slipped to the bottom of the one-loss pile.
We’ll wait and see how things shake out over the next month. Two dates with Tennessee, tomorrow’s game with Ole Miss and road games at Mississippi State, Vandy and Georgia give the Cats plenty of obstacles to earning a coveted No. 1 seed in the NCAA tourney.
This and That
-When the Cats tip off with Ole Miss at Rupp Arena Tuesday night, it will be the second of four consecutive Tuesday night games featured nationally on ESPN’s Super Tuesday. The next two are at home next week against Alabama and the big date with SEC West leader Mississippi State in Starkville on Feb. 16.
-We think too much was made of John Wall’s admittedly ill-advised comments Saturday about trying “not to listen” to Coach Calipari. Wall has proven himself a mature and heady performer on the court, and it’s easy to see how a couple bad games could produce a little frustration in a 19-year-old freshman. If anything, the mild stink raised over this story illustrates the pressure and scrutiny that comes with being a super star for Kentucky.
-Whether you like him or not, seeing LeBron James rocking blue gear and doing the “Y” during the Kentucky cheer at Rupp this weekend was a pretty awesome sight. And it was a reminder of the stark difference between where the Cats sit today in the basketball world vis a vis a year ago.
1) The Commodores come into this game with possibly their deepest team in the Kevin Stallings era. Ten players are averaging nine minutes or more per game and four of them are averaging double figures in points. Vandy returned seven of its top eight scorers from last season and added one of the school’s biggest recruits of the past decade in John Jenkins, a 6-5 guard who is averaging 11 points per game on a sick 49% percentage from behind the three point arc. This roster possesses a variety of weapons.
2) This year’s Vandy squad is a bit different from past editions in two primary ways. First of all, they are athletic and have several players who can slash and jump. Second, they are not just a perimeter oriented team that beats you with the long ball. This team has some size up front, and with the offensive game of A.J. Ogilvy, they will feed the post when they need a bucket. That said, they still shoot nearly 38% from long range and will knock down open jumpers all day.
3) How the Cats decide to defend Vanderbilt in the post will be something to watch. The 6-11 Ogilvy is more of finesse player with a face up jumper, while DeMarcus Cousins is an immovable force in the post. Vandy forward Jeffery Taylor is an athletic combo player who can also mix it up inside a bit. Will UK try to counter him with Patrick Patterson, or leave it to one of the wings?
4) Kentucky cannot expect to dominate this game, nor should the Cats expect the homecourt advantage to be as overwhelming as it was last weekend. Vanderbilt has been strong on the road, winning games at Saint Mary’s, Alabama, Tennessee and two weeks ago in Columbia. Most educated consumers of UK hoops have had the date at Memorial Coliseum in Nashville circled since the summer, but make no mistake, this team will come into Rupp expecting to win.
5) The Cats have come back down to earth and will likely leave the top spot in next week’s polls, win or lose this weekend. After a thrilling 19-game win streak to start the season, how will a relatively young UK squad handle its first bit of adversity? Vandy is a team that matches up relatively well with Kentucky’s deep and talented roster. The ‘Dores are experienced and go two-deep at every position. PG Jermaine Beal is battle tested and can handle the ball well enough to withstand Kentucky’s defensive pressure. The rest of the roster has enough athletes to run with the Cats, too. We expect a very close game.
