One of the running themes of the 2009-10 college basketball season has been parity and the lack of a truly dominant team. It seems as if more ink and Internet bandwidth have been dedicated to talking about what isn’t going on than what is. These presumptions don’t come without good reason.
To wit: Defending champion North Carolina is muddling through its worst season in the Roy Williams era and threatening to miss the tourney altogether. Powerhouse programs like UConn, Louisville, UCLA and Indiana are slogging through seemingly forgettable seasons. The Pac 10 is downright bad and the SEC, ACC and Big Ten have been mostly underwhelming.
What’s more, the media who cover the pro game have made a habit out of proclaiming the upcoming NBA draft one of the weakest in recent history. And the general consensus is that the talent pool in college hoops is way down from where it has been over the past five years.
What it all adds up to is a sense that there are no teams with the potential to one day be immortalized in the pantheon of college hoops as, well, great.
We couldn’t disagree more.
This year’s Kentucky Wildcats are already knocking on the hallowed doors of a “historic” season, even by the lofty standards of a program as revered as the one in Lexington.
Consider the following mix of facts and highly plausible hypotheticals:
- As we already know, the Cats started the year 19-0, reached the top of the polls AND managed to become the first team in the history of college basketball to win 2,000 games. These are elite achievements no matter how you slice it.
- According to polling of journalists who vote for the various player of the year honors, UK PG John Wall is the leading candidate to take home the hardware as the nation’s best college basketball player.
- The school record for wins in a season is 36, set in 1948. With nine remaining regular season games, up to three SEC tournament games and potentially up to six NCAA tourney games, this year’s team (sitting now at 21-1) could realistically make a run at that number. Holding the all-time win record at the sport’s all-time winningest program would be worthy of the “greatness” moniker.
- Barring a monumental collapse, Kentucky will be favored to win the SEC regular season and tournament championships. This is from a league that could get up to six teams in the dance. If UK holds serve in conference, a number one seed in the NCAAs would be a shoe-in.
- This year’s Louisville-Kentucky game set an all-time Rupp Arena attendance record as 24,479 fans watched the Cats victory over the rival Cards. Pretty impressive for a program that has led the nation in attendance 12 out of the last 13 years.
- It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Wall will be the first pick in this summer’s NBA draft. Patrick Patterson, who graduates in May, is almost assured of being selected in the first round as well. And if Eric Bledsoe and DeMarcus Cousins declare early (and the BBL strongly believes that both will), the two of them are also first rounders. Four first rounders in the same draft from the same school. Unprecedented.
- Looking further into the future, this year’s roster may have up to nine players who could one day play pro ball. From an overall talent perspective, this would place them high on the list of consideration for most talented rosters ever.
- Statistically, this team is no slouch. Kentucky’s dominant front line is currently on pace to set single season school records for blocks, blocks per game, rebounds and rebounds per game. Their 82 PPG and 50% FG averages are also strong single season marks.
- And of course, above all, this team has a very realistic shot to cut down the nets in Indianapolis in April as the 2010 national champions.
How much of this will really happen? Very difficult to say. But all of it could.
This team is far from perfect, of course. There are still clear weaknesses–turnovers, lack of mental focus, mediocre to poor foul shooting at times. But these are all correctable problems, and these Cats are talented enough to accomplish their goals in spite of them.
So the question then is, what makes a team great? For our money, if Kentucky continues to get better and their precocious assortment of ridiculously gifted youngsters plays up to its considerable potential, the nation will know the answer.
Another question was answered Saturday, as the temporarily number one ranked Kentucky Wildcats rebounded from a deflating first loss earlier this week and thoroughly dominated a very good Vanderbilt squad.
Rather than recapping the entire game, we’ll go Clint Eastwood in this write up and give you the good, the bad and the ugly from today’s performance.
The Good
DeMarcus Cousins – Big Cuz is becoming a more complete big man day by day. The 260-pound goliath showed off an impressive combination of agility, hustle and knack for finishing around the rim in a 21 point, 10 rebound effort. Vandy had no answer for him in the post, as the big boy went to the line 13 times and racked up 10 or 12 fouls on the mix of big men who tried to stop him. As commentator Jimmy Dykes pointed out in the telecast, there is no big man in college hoops right now who is more consistent. The BBL is salivating over a possible chance to see him go toe to toe with Cole Aldrich in a late round tourney game.
Darnell Dodson – Getting a rare start in place of Eric Bledsoe (no news on why just yet), Dodson responded with four threes and 16 points. He played nice interior defense, too, pulling in seven boards and doing a nice job on Ogilvy and Taylor, both of whom struggled mightily. Getting more games like this from DD will be a huge plus down the stretch.
Rebounding – The Cats utterly dominated Vandy on the boards today, outrebounding them 39 to 21 overall and 18 to three on the offensive glass. Second chance points were the story as the Cats used their huge front line to dictate every offensive possession and keep the ‘Dores from making any runs late in the game.
Patrick Patterson – PP rebounded from a bad game last week to drop 12 points, which included a career best three three-pointers. But he’ll need to be more aggressive than he was today inside. Patterson passed up the opportunity to take his man to the rack or go strong to the hole on several occasions, opting instead to clear the ball back outside. For his personal future in the pros, and the success of UK this March, he will definitely need to play stronger and look to score. Coach Calipari should also give him more opportunities with set plays.
The Bad
Darius Miller – Not sure where Miller’s game has gone, but after last week’s 18 point effort vs. Arkansas, he’s thrown up two goose eggs and continues to look confused or scared.
Turnovers – The Cats turned it over 17 times, and seven of them were on Wall (who helped balance it out with nine dimes). Sloppy play on the part of UK prevented this game from being a blowout.
Free throws – Surprise, UK shot poorly from the line again today. The Cats missed 14 FTs, including a combined 12-21 by Wall, Bledsoe and Liggins, who did the majority of the ballhandling late. This may not prevent them from winning a championship, but the Cats won’t become a complete team until they get better here.
The Ugly
Technical fouls – Big Cuz received a tech in the second half and narrowly avoided being tossed in the early going, after throwing a vicious forearm to the head of a Vandy big man.
Messy basketball – In all, there were 58 fouls called in the game, and officials needed to separate or warn players on both sides several times. UK showed it can thrive in a brutal halfcourt slugfest vs. Louisville and then again today, but this is a better team when it plays to its strengths of getting out in transition and attacking the goal.
BBL Take
Kentucky made a nice statement today against a Vanderbilt team that showed athleticism and grittiness. The Commodores will be a much tougher test in their own gym next month. All in all, you have to be encouraged by the play of DeAndre Liggins, who logged 25 minutes, dropped nine points and continued to play the role of human bruise in diving for loose balls and playing tenacious defense. The Cats were also a force from deep range today, going 12-23 from behind the arc with five different players knocking down triples.
A top 25-ranked Ole Miss team comes to Rupp Tuesday for what should be another opportunity to prove this Kentucky is a national championship contender.
The BBL has surveyed the college hoops landscape and we see only a handful of teams that can beat UK provided that UK is on their game.
In no particular order:
Villanova
This is a really good team in the backcourt. Scotty Reynolds is a deadeye 3-point shooter and a savvy veteran. Their other guards are athletic and super quick, allowing Nova to employ constant traps in the backcourt. Their inside guys are young but big and athletic. UK would have to bring their A game to beat Jay Wright’s club in the tooney.
Texas
This is the closest team athletically and in size to UK. Texas has three really good frosh who play major minutes as well. They have two beasts in the low post in Wangmene and Pittman. Damian James is a smaller, better shooting version of Pattrick Patterson. This could very well be the NCAA title game should seedings hold in the tournament.
Syracuse
This is the one team because of their amoeba matchup 2-3 zone that every team fears in the Big Dance. They are extremely athletic in the low post and have good gap shooters in Rautins and Triche. They are not as deep as UK, Texas or Villanova but the zone allows them to get away with playing fewer players.
Kansas
This team is deep but slow. Collins, Henry and the Morris twins are the real athletes they possess. They are also not nearly as tall or long in the backcourt as UK, and we see them struggling against guards like Kentucky’s. But they are well coached and have solid tournament experience. They will be a tough out either way.
UNC/Duke/Miss State/UConn
All four of these teams have the depth, size and shooting to compete against UK. Each team has serious flaws and would have to be firing on all cylinders to take out UK in a tournament matchup. UNC is small and thin in the backcourt. Duke is slow and unathletic in the frontcourt. Miss St is just raw and very inconsistent. UConn has lots of size and talent but shoots very poorly from the perimeter and the line.
Next Tier: Georgetown/West Virginia/Vandy/Tennessee/Michigan State/Kansas State
These teams each have a few crucial shortcomings that make them a bad matchup for Kentucky. But each of them possesses enough talent and depth to possibly make a move as the season progresses. We see these six teams as being poised to make a run in March. Keep an eye on them.
This is how we see things today. Obviously, UK could lose to anyone on any day, as the close margin with Auburn illustrates. But if Kentucky is on its game, we don’t see anyone outside the teams mentioned above that can put together the kind of effort it will take to beat the Cats.
Onto Rupp next Saturday vs Arkansas.
The Cats pulled out a closer than expected 76-68 victory over a Georgia Bulldog squad that pushed them to their physical limits in every phase of the game.
Georgia held a lead as late as the 5:00 minute mark, but defense and clutch inside baskets by Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins ended up being the difference.
Once again, poor free-throw and three-point shooting plagued the Cats, who went 2-14 from behind the arc and 22-33 from the line. But backcourt defensive pressure contributed to 26 Bulldog turnovers and the UK front line stood tall with the game on the line.
Georgia clawed its way back from an 11 point deficit in the first half and built as much as a six point cushion in the second half. The Dawgs were led by Travis Leslie’s 20 points, which included a thunderous first half dunk over Cousins, and Trey Thompkins 17 point, 13 rebound performance. Thompkins fooled UK defenders with an array of short jumpers and strong inside moves.
But the Cats inside pressence was too strong in the end, as three Georgia big men fouled out in the game. John Wall and Eric Bledsoe were also crucial factors down the stretch, getting clutch steels and penetrating at will for most of the afternoon.
Takeaways
- DeAndre Liggins continued to show improvement and, we feel, deserves more PT. Liggins had 6 points and 3 steals in only 14 minutes. He showed more aggressiveness today than he has so far this season. It was great to see.
- Coach Calipari seemed to shrink the bench again, which is becoming a bit of a trend. The starters received the bulk of the minutes, and most of the subs shared their time at the 3-position. As in the Louisville game, when things got tight late, Cal was unwilling to go the bench.
- This Kentucky team continues to find ways to win, and it’s not always the John Wall show. Wall had an off-game, missing a couple dunks and shooting erratically. He penetrated at will, but didn’t finish. Meanwhile, Patterson was strong down the stretch and Cousins showed a will to win, diving on the floor and making some big hustle plays in the waning minutes.
- With several other top 25 upsets already this weekend, it seems fairly clear that conference play is going to be a roller coaster in college hoops this year. The Cats will need to buckle up and prepare for 15 straight wars.
With football season winding to a close and basketball season already a quarter of the way through, we thought we’d stop and throw out some superlatives for the early year.
Best Team – Syracuse
Hard to go with anyone else. The Orange entered the season unranked and coming off an exhibition loss to mighty LeMoyne. All that feels like ancient history now after a 10-game tear that included thorough dominations of highly ranked North Carolina, Cal and Florida. But it’s not just the wins. It’s the way they’ve come. The Cuse has the perfect athletic personnel to employ Jim Boeheim’s trademark matchup 2-3 zone, which is causing opponents fits. With two interchangeable point guards, a sharp shooter from the wing, beef up front and a do-it-all star in Wesley Johnson, this team has no weaknesses. Will be a tough out in March.
Best Story – Kentucky
Sure, we’re completely biased, but has anything captured the college hoops headlines so far the way Calipari’s Cats have? The quick turnaround from SEC also-ran to legit natty title contender has been a development few could have predicted only 9 months ago. The transformation is largely attributable to the breakout sensation that is John Wall. We don’t need to go into detail.
Best Conference – Big Ten
We don’t want to admit it, but the Big Ten boasts the best top to bottom resume thus far. Purdue has solid wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest, Illinois topped Vandy and Clemson, Michigan State beat Gonzaga and Wisconsin defeated Duke. Northwestern, Minnesota and Ohio State also have combined for some good wins over the likes of Notre Dame, NC State, Seton Hall, California and Butler.
Biggest Sleeper – (Tie) Louisville and Mississippi State
Louisville is a train wreck right now. Really no other way to put it. Losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte don’t happen to teams playing great basketball. But don’t be fooled. The Cards have had sluggish pre-conference seasons the past three years, and in each case, they contended for the Big East title (winning it twice). This year should be no different. With a healthy backcourt and quickly developing young talent like Peyton Siva, it’s just a matter of time.
Mississippi State seems to be rounding into form. After head scratching losses to Rider and Richmond, the Bulldogs have started putting it together, winning four consecutive games by double digits, including blowouts of DePaul and UCLA. While the Renardo Sidney eligibility controversy continues, MSU got some good news this week when 7-1 center John Riek became eligible. Riek is a potential high NBA draft pick with a ridiculous 8-foot wingspan. Put that next to shot blocking demon Jarvis Varnardo and you have one imposing front line. If they get Sidney back, watch out, a Final Four run is not unreasonable.
Biggest Dud – UCLA
We knew this season would be tough for Coach Ben Howland’s Bruins. But we didn’t think it would be this tough. Of course, losing five early draft entries in a two-year period and playing a grueling early schedule explains it well. The truth is that UCLA simply hasn’t found a ballhandler to replace departed Darren Collison, and no one has stepped up to be the go-to scorer. Thankfully for the Bru-Crew, the Pac 10 is down this year and this young team will have a chance to turn things around in conference play.
Best Player – Wesley Johnson
Not John Wall, you ask? Wall is special for sure. And by year’s end, he may occupy this spot. But he simply turns the ball over too much to be tabbed as top candidate for player of the year. Instead, we’ll go with the best player on the team that looks the best so far. Johnson leads the Cuse in scoring (17 ppg), rebounding (8 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). But it’s his presence as an electric dunker and the long-armed disrupter in the 2-3 zone that really spurs the Orange attack.
Best Game – UK 64 UConn 61
This one’s a no brainer. A star-studded Madison Square Garden crowd. Old coaching rivals going toe to toe. Two of basketball’s regal programs in a rare early season out of conference clash. Photo finish. The brilliance of John Wall. It will be tough to top this one all year.
UK’s amazing back court athleticism and speed was on full display vs. the severely overmatched UNC Asheville squad on Monday night at Louisville’s Freedom Hall.
John Wall had 12 points and a UK frosh record of 14 assists, with many of them coming on alley oop dunks to an assortment of UK low post players.
UK now faces three straight traditional powers in their next three games. The Cats will square off against UNC, Uconn and Indiana in a span of 12 days.
The BBL believes the Cats are getting adequate perimeter shooting from the likes of Darius Miller, Darnell Dodson and Eric Bledsoe. We also feel that Josh Harrellson could come off the bench and cause matchup problems with his deft shooting touch and ability to pull opposing big men away from the goal.
UNC and Uconn will provide stiff tests to DeMarcus Cousins as they are both long and athletic up front. It will be interesting to see how Big Cuz does against players his athletic caliber and size. He has shown an uncanny ability to finish in the low block with an assortment of post moves, but it has mostly come against players not quite his caliber. UK’s guards should have a decided advantage vs UNC who is thin and inexperienced in the backcourt.
The BBL is excited about Saturday and you should be too. At 7-0, Calipari is off to the best start of any UK Coach since Adolph Rupp. That is not a misprint. Not even Rick Pitino ever started a season 7-0 at UK.
After the Cats pulled their best Houdini act to beat Miami of Ohio Monday night, Kentucky fans can be forgiven for thinking to themselves “oh no, not again.” After all, it was a hallmark of the Tubby Smith and Billy Gillispie eras for UK to play down to their competition in non-conference games at Rupp Arena (Penn State, Western Kentucky, Gardner-Webb, San Diego, VMI).
But after a week’s worth of college hoops, it looks like Kentucky isn’t the only “powerhouse” program to begin the year in underwhelming fashion. If anything is certain so far, it’s that this season may be as unpredictable as any in recent history.
Here are some observations from the first 10 days of college hoops:
Beware the Underdog – No. 1 Kansas and No. 2 Michigan State survived at the wire against unranked foes, while UCLA lost at Pauley Pavilion to Cal State Fullerton. And we all know what almost happened to Kentucky.
Da ‘Ville Looks Strong – Everyone expected a major dropoff after the departures of Terrence Williams and Earl Clark and the offseason issues surrounding Rick Pitino. But Louisville looked like a top 5 team this week in a 30-pooint dismantling of Arkansas.
Tennessee Starts With a Bang – Sure it was UNC-Asheville, but 66-14 at halftime? With 9 players scoring 7 or more points, the Vols are spreading considerable wealth.
Big East Teams Struggle - Georgetown, Cincinnati and UConn have been less than impressive vs. bottom tier competition. This conference may be topsy turvy all year.
Long Year for Georgia and Auburn – With the SEC expected to see a resurgent year, life will be hard for these would-be SEC East and West cellar dwellers. The Dawgs have already lost to Wofford, while Auburn suffered a slightly less humiliating defeat at the hands of Missouri State. Too bad both programs are in down years for football, too.
Dick Vitale had nothing but good things to say about Kentucky’s chances this year in an ESPN national conference call earlier this week.
Here are some of the better quotes, courtesy of Larry Vaught from the Danville-Advocate Messenger.
“I will tell you one thing. It’s not a handicap to have a lineup with John Wall.”
“DeMarcus Cousins and those kids are talented. With motivation and inspiration, they will really create some noise. They are too talented, will be well coached, have depth and size, Patrick Patterson is an all-American candidate, and Daniel Orton and Cousins give them great size. Darius Miller will be a much better player, too.”
“The three guards they have will be very good. I have not talked to anybody who has put a question mark on John Wall.”
“Can they live up to frenzy down there will be the question. I was talking to some Kentucky fans, and they were talking like they would run the table (and go undefeated) and that’s not going to happen. But they are so excited.”
“[Calipari] is going to get these kids to do it. They can move laterally. They are going to play and defend. John Calipari will not have it any other way.”
“Patterson without a doubt is a star. He has great hands and the ability to post up inside. At times, he has a tendency to disappear and not get involved in the action. He took only seven shots in an exhibition game and Cal was upset.”
“No way should he take seven shots. He has to get 14 or 15 and make himself available. With the help he’ll get from Wall, I think he will be free inside a lot and will have a big year.”
For UK basketball fans, the day of October 16th, 2009, represents a new lease on life.
With Big Blue Madness kicking off tonight, the ceremonial start of the college basketball season has arrived and there is a feeling of excitement and joy in Lexington unlike anything seen in 10 years.
Goodbye Recent History
UK hoops has struggled to remain relevant for a decade. After reaching dynasty status in the mid and late 90s, the program meandered off course. Gone were the household names, top five recruiting classes and preseason Final Four expectations. Gone was the voice of Dickey V screaming about UK running, pressing and dunking teams out of the gym. Gone were the days of highlight reels and SportsCenter catch phrases.
But with the arrival of Coach John Calipari, along with one of the greatest incoming recruiting classes of all time, UK hoops has experienced another tectonic shift.
Waking up in the morning as a UK fan once again feels great. Hope provides a healing foundation for a deeply fragmented fan base, desperate after years of subpar finishes, culminating in the Cats missing the NCAA tournament last season.
A Watershed Moment
The BBL is salivating at the thought of seeing John Wall in a UK jersey for the first time during the Blue-White Scrimmage, which will be televised nationally in HD on Fox Sports South this Saturday. And we’re not the only ones. Thousands of fans camped outside Memorial Coliseum for the past 10 days hoping to get tickets to see Big Blue Madness.
That passion and exuberance did not go unnoticed by Coach Cal. Check out his commentary about the fanbase as told to Larry Vaught:
“We are going to do more than we have ever done at a Madness. If people can stay out there seven days in the cold and rain to enjoy this night, we are going to do things we have never done before,” Calipari said.
“We are going to have special guests that will be co-coaches from the sports world to entertainers at this event. You know why? For the fans. If they are going to camp out for tickets, we are going to show them a good time.”
It’s hard not to appreciate the love Calipari is showing for the program.
Glimpse Into the Future
Here is the list of expected recruits in attendance to witness the rebirth of UK basketball:
2010
Kyrie Irving (Rivals #9)
Tobias Harris official (Rivals #5)
CJ Leslie (Rivals #14)
2011
Michael Gilchrist (Rivals #1…likened to Lebron James athletically)
Quincy Miller (Rivals #3)
Achraf Yacoubou (Rivals #76)
We’ll sum it up with this comment from Vaught: “Both DeMarcus Cousins and John Wall talk about wanting this to be a historic season at UK. They talk about undefeated, championships, etc. And Cal said he embraces that feeling”
Ladies and Gentleman, get ready for something special. And make sure you program your DVR to capture The Blue-White Scrimmage starting at 4:30 EST Satuday on 646 on DIRECTV. Where is Cawood Ledford when you need him?
The BBL is good at saving you time. That’s kind of the whole point. Read this email every day, which should take you 5 minutes or less, and you’ll feel completely on top of UK basketball.
In that spirit, we give you a quick snapshot of each of the three main preseason basketball magazines.
Athlon Sports
#1 Overall: Kansas
UK Ranking: #6
Highlights: Regional features (including a Calipari cover story), prediction of the full NCAA tourney field of 65, 10 Things to Watch feature
Why you should buy: Gives the most comprehensive team by team coverage of all the preseason books, doesn’t overlook potential sleepers like Vanderbilt and Iowa State
Lindy’s
#1 Overall: Kansas
UK Ranking: #8
Highlights: Features on Billy Donovan and Josh Pastner, frontcourt and backcourt rankings, teams of the decade rankings
Why you should buy: Good bonus features on dirty recruiting and why Roy Williams “owns” Coach K
The Sporting News
#1 Overall: Kansas
UK Ranking: #2
Highlights: Position rankings, Final Four predictions, Rivals recruiting reports
Why you should buy: Mike Decourcy is one of the best in the business, TSN is consistently one of the most accurate prognosticators
