The Kentucky Wildcats will battle Wake Forest tonight in a second round matchup that should be plenty entertaining to a primetime national TV audience.
Here are a few of the BBL’s thoughts on this game.
1) Wake Forest’s chances start and end with point guard Ish Smith. Smith, fresh off a game winning jumper to beat Texas in OT Thursday, is the playmaker and pace setter for the Demon Deacons. He is athletic and quick and should be a fine challenge for Kentucky’s young guards. Keep an eye on how he handles John Wall.
2) Eric Bledsoe was hot in UK’s 100-71 triumph over East Tennessee State Thursday. His eight for nine shooting from behind the arc paced the Cats. If he can keep up this kind of pace, UK will be tough to beat.
3) How will Kentucky’s bigs deal with Al Farouq Aminu? Aminu is an NBA player with a wide assortment of skills. He can shoot, get to the rack, post up and crash the boards. Seeing him battle Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins should be fun.
4) Kentucky could make a big statement if Wake Forest decides to run. The Demon Deacons have struggled on defense at times this year and if they attempt to push the tempo, they could be in for a long night.
5) The talent disparity here is not as vast as some may think. Wake has a good group of big and athletic ballers who will physically match up well with the Cats embarrassingly deep roster.
BBL’s Take
We think that Wake Forest, with its experienced backcourt and overall depth of quality talent, will stay close with Kentucky for much of this one. If they try to push the pace, we like UK’s ability to dominate in transition. If Kentucky is hitting perimeter jump shots, we think the Cats can end up winning by double figures. But if Wake slows it down and makes this a nip-tuck halfcourt game, we could be looking at another nail biter. Still, we’re saying Cats by 12.
The Kentucky Wildcats advanced to the SEC Tournament championship game after an impressive 74-45 victory over 13th ranked Tennessee, avenging a February loss to the Vols in Knoxville.
UK was led by a huge DeMarcus Cousins performance of 19 points and 15 boards, while John Wall controlled the tempo from start to finish and created offense seemingly any time the Cats needed it.
The Big Picture
With every passing day in March, the picture comes more into focus for this Kentucky Wildcats team. The picture we speak of is the Cats’ postseason destiny.
What will be their ultimate fate?
We know, of course, that this team has the talent to win it all. But the margin for error is thinner than many in the Big Blue Nation would like to believe.
As we see them, here are the knowns and unknowns that should dictate the future of this Wildcats squad.
Known Commodities
Kentucky right now is the most talented team in college basketball. It is difficult to argue to the contrary. They possess great depth and very little dropoff in overall athleticism when going to the bench.
The Cats consistently get great performances from an array of supporting cast members, and on any given night, there is more than one Kentucky player who can hurt you.
Wall’s spectacular guard play and Cousins’ domination of the interior are the highlights. Spot shooting from Darnell Dodson, Eric Bledsoe and Darius Miller are also wild cards that can kill a team when they least expect it.
But this team is much more than that. They can dominate the glass, play suffocating halfcourt defense, and show the ability to go on huge spurts, as evidenced Saturday in their decisive 14-0 second half run to bury Tennesee.
Known Unknowns
The unknowns about this team are many.
Can Kentucky hit enough perimeter shots to keep defenses honest? Will the effort and mental focus of such a young group be able to hold out for a deep tourney run? Is Calipari a good enough Xs and Os coach to get this team through the tense moments of a white knuckler in the Big Dance? And will this team ever solve a zone?
We don’t know the answers. To be perfectly frank, we doubt the Cats will have the right answers to all these questions. This team makes a lot of serious fundamental mistakes. And free throw shooting continues to be abysmal for stretches.
But the bottom line is that Kentucky just beat a top 15 team (and a near certain 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA tournament) by 29 points on a neutral floor.
Even when the pieces are not all in place, there is enough there to overcome UK’s considerable deficits.
BBL’s Take
Sunday Kentucky will meet the winner of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State for the right to a 26th SEC tourney title. Win that game and this UK steam roller will head to the tournament with a number one seed and a favorable draw.
We still see an early exit as a definite possibility, depending on the opponent. But things could just as easily go the other way.
The Wildcats’ plot continues to thicken.
The Wildcats were not extremely impressive in their final home game of the 2009-10 season, but they did what they needed to do to close out a Florida team desperate for a tourney-clinching win.
The Cats were led, on Senior Day, by Darius Miller and Eric Bledsoe, who tallied 14 points each in an emotional game that could be the final game in Rupp Arena for as many as five Wildcats–three seniors plus John Wall, Patrick Patterson and DeMarcus Cousins.
Overall, Kentucky did not rebound as well as they normally do, and the Cats were outscored in the paint 36-22 for the game. UK’s young perimeter struggled with inconsistency once again, and team defense as a whole was not up to par.
Much to our displeasure, some of the worst signs from earlier in the season continued to show, including streaky outside shooting and turnovers.
But, lest we paint a completely negative picture, the BBL would like to congratulate this year’s Kentucky Wildcats on a stellar 29-2 season overall, 14-2 SEC record and regular season conference championship…the school’s 44th.
Now the real fun begins with the SEC tournament heating up this week in Nashville. The Cats will face the winner of Georgia and Auburn at 1:00 p.m. Friday.
Before then the BBL will have breakdowns on the SEC tournament, a retrospective on UK’s season, and a look ahead to the Big Dance next week.
Get ready for the madness.
We won’t jump to any conclusions after watching Kentucky fall to Tennessee 74-65 Saturday afternoon in Knoxville.
Sure, there are plenty of eyebrow raisers about the way Kentucky played. But all in all, this was not an extremely damaging loss. The Cats may drop a spot in the polls, but nothing more. Their No. 1 seed resume wasn’t tarnished, and they still have two more chances to clinch an SEC regular season championship.
Nonetheless, the BBL offers our thoughts on Saturday’s loss.
Why They Lost
The primary reason for Kentucky’s defeat is a very simple one. The Cats shot the ball woefully from start to finish.
You won’t win many games when you shoot 2 for 22 from beyond the three-point arc and 35% from the field overall. You also won’t win many games on the road against ranked opponents when you get behind by as many as 19 points in the second half.
The fact that Kentucky tied the game and was in a position to possibly win it is, if anything, a testament to the fight in this group. And don’t believe any of the pundits who will try to say that UK crawled back into this game on talent alone.
Kentucky played excellent halfcourt defense in the game’s final 15 minutes, rebounded well and showed a combination of determination and heart that is frankly rare for a team led by underclassmen. Couple this with the fact that UK was playing an early Saturday game on the road after a late game Thursday night, and it really is remarkable how it all went down.
But let’s also give some credit to Tennessee and coach Bruce Pearl. The Vols defended well and executed another well devised gameplan of slowing the tempo and looking for scoring options late on each shot clock. They got good contributions from 10 different players, and really played unselfishly, getting some great interior passes for buckets late in the game.
Cause for Concern
No secret here. Kentucky has to find a way to knock down perimeter jumpers.
They will be zoned relentlessly by every opponent from here on out. Good decision making from John Wall and UK’s ability to attack the offensive glass will help, but at some point, someone has to step up and make defenses respect UK from outside.
At times, we thought Eric Bledsoe, Darius Miller or Darnell Dodson could be the guy to do it. But this has just not panned out. Dodson has faded badly. His body seems worn out and he doesn’t have the same quickness on his release. He’ll need to get stronger next year if he is to become a big time scoring option. Miller, while hitting only one of five from three, stepped up and scored some big baskets during the Cats big second half push. Bledsoe chipped in nine points and five boards, but was hot and cold for most of the day.
Unfortunately, John Calipari decided not to give DeAndre Liggins a lot of good minutes. Liggins made a nice move to the hoop and hit a runner early in the game, but was essentially not heard from the rest of the game. We’d like to see him get a few more of Bledsoe’s minutes, given Eric’s poor shooting and penchant for turnovers.
Signs of Promise
All in all, the Cats performance wasn’t too far off what has become the median—another double double from DeMarcus Cousins, a solid yeoman performance from Patrick Patteson and spectacular plays and heady leadership from Wall. It was mostly the supporting cast that left a lot to be desired.
Perhaps one of the most encouraging takeaways from the Tennessee loss came in a one line quote from Wall after the game. “Just imagine two weeks from now, if we lost this game, our season’s over with,” he told reporters.
It’s hard to make a big deal about such a small comment. But the BBL thinks this speaks volumes about where this young team’s mindset is. These Cats are not motivated by a desire to do anything less than win the national championship. And their gutty comeback—spurred by Wall’s intensity—reflected this sentiment.
Tennessee is a deep and talented team. They’ve beaten top ranked Kansas already this season, and showed they can play with anyone. UK shouldn’t hang their heads on this one. The Cats close out the regular season with a road date at Georgia and a home tilt with Florida. They’ll need a few days rest and a short memory. All goals remain intact and all possibilities are still open. The road only gets tougher from here.
Kentucky went into a hostile arena Tuesday night and, with the eyes of a national TV audience upon them, showed serious moxie in beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs 81-75 in overtime.
The game was officiated very closely, as both teams were called for a number of ticky-tack contact fouls from the start. MSU center Jarvis Varnado missed 16 minutes of the second half after picking up his second, third and fourth fouls right around the 18:00 minute mark.
With Varnado sitting most of the game, DeMarcus Cousins was a man child around the goal, finishing on a number of put back offensive rebounds. Unfortunately, he also was unable to play for long stretches due to foul trouble. Without him playing consistent minutes, UK once again struggled to score in the halfcourt set.
Thankfully for the Wildcats, Patrick Patterson decided to show up Tuesday, scoring 19 points and pulling in 10 boards. His highlights included a number of solid, low-post offensive moves as well as a game-tying jumper from the baseline that sent the game into overtime.
UK also received good play from Darius Miller in typical unsuspecting fashion. He made some huge shots in the second half, including a stretch of seven straight points at a time when the Cats had fallen behind by four.
MSU’s Dee Bost played a sensational game, seemingly driving by UK’s big men and scoring layups all night long. The Bulldogs also got clutch shooting from Barry Stewart and some key offensive rebound stick backs from Romero Osby.
As we’ve stated in the past, it’s obvious to the BBL that UK’s inexperienced guards will struggle significantly against veteran backcourts. They are easily pushed around when screened and routinely give up back door cuts due to a lack of concentration and focus. This is a recipe for disaster in a closely guarded and officiated NCAA tournament game.
Ultimately, Kentucky fought valiantly to win this game. The Cats outscored MSU 7-0 over the final three minutes of regulation, triggered by a huge three from DeAndre Liggins with about 2:00 to play. In overtime, UK’s size and depth overpowered MSU, which by that time was without Varnado, who had already fouled out.
We would be remiss not to mention that, as if on cue, John Wall became superman in the last two minutes of OT. Wall broke a 72-72 tie with a hanging, acrobatic layup, where he got fouled and hit the free throw to put UK up three. On MSU’s ensuing possession, he pinned a Bost layup attempt against the backboard to deny the Bulldogs a chance to get within one. Wall barely missed a triple-double on the night, ending up with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.
Mississippi State also played their hearts out and kept the pressure on Kentucky by hitting some incredibly deep three pointers late in the game. The Bulldogs, desperately in need of a win to bolster their NCAA tournament resume, were playing without leading scorer Ravern Johnson who was suspended for breaking team rules.
UK was lucky to get out of Starkville with a win, proving how difficult it is to win on the road in a BCS conference. In fact, the BBL predicted a loss here earlier in the season. Now, at 25-1, Kentucky’s season is beginning to look historic. But Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt should be another huge challenge.
It’s now looking more and more likely that UK will receive a No. 1 seed in the tournament. This would be an absolutely tremendous achievement in Coach Calipari’s first season at UK.
And so the regular season comes down to this. The Kentucky Wildcats, 24-1 overall and 9-1 in the SEC, embark this week on a brutal six-game stretch that will test the mettle of this young team and go a long way toward dictating the fate of the 2009-10 season.
Four of the games will be on the road, and five out of the six come versus teams still deserving strong consideration for NCAA tournament bids. None figure to be cake walks.
Murderer’s row starts off Tuesday night in Starkville against a dangerous Mississippi State team that the BBL feels is one of the few squads in the nation not at a disadvantage athletically when matching up with the Cats. When breaking down the schedule earlier this season, we actually predicted a loss for Kentucky in this game. Though the Bulldogs have struggled this year, nothing changes in our assessment of how these teams match up.
Personnel at a Glance
MSU is a tall, rangy team with a lot of active leapers who will rebound, scrap and block shots. Defensively they are the best team in the conference in points allowed, and it all revolves around 6-9 center Jarvis Varnado, who is 16 blocks shy of the NCAA record.
Offensively, point guard Dee Bost has a quick first step and can get into the lane or pull up and hit outside jumpers. He’s coming off a huge game vs. Auburn where he scored 32 points and hit seven threes. State has a bevy of wing scorers in Phil Turner, Ravern Johnson and Barry Stewart, none of whom are scared to pull the trigger from long range.
They go about eight deep and have an assortment of good rebounders, starting with Varnado, who pulls down an SEC leading 11.3 per game.
Plan of Attack
Mississippi State will attempt to drive the lane early to loosen up Kentucky’s perimeter defense. If the Bulldogs can find creases in UK’s halfcourt defense, the Cats will need to watch for kick outs and be ready to close on three point shooters. None of State’s shooters need a lot of daylight to pull.
On the defensive side of the ball, MSU will likely follow the now standard blueprint for teams playing Kentucky and run a 2-3 matchup zone with Varnado manning the middle. Varnado is giving up a couple inches and about 30 pounds to DeMarcus Cousins, but with his condor like wingspan and uncanny timing, he will be a tough obstacle to shoot over for Cousins or any Wildcat who gets into the lane.
A big X-factor in this game could be MSU’s Kodi Augustus, a broad shouldered 6-8 power forward who can play out on the perimeter. He’ll likely draw Patrick Patterson away from the basket and look to slash.
All in all, it’s likely to be raining three point shots for most of the game, and if MSU’s outside jumpers are falling, they have a good shot to win.
BBL’s Take
Kentucky will be facing a hostile crowd in “Stark-Vegas” as the Bulldogs need this victory to put themselves squarely into the NCAA field of 65. MSU has struggled through the middle part of the SEC season, but hasn’t lost a conference home game since last year. Without question this will be the toughest road setting the Cats have played in up to this point.
Kentucky will need to get out to a good start and hope to get some transition buckets to silence a raucous crowd. State will try to take away the penetration of John Wall and Eric Bledsoe, but if the Cats can find a way to get the ball to the middle and pull Varnado away from the basket, they should find a lot of open looks.
UK will also need to attack the zone more effectively than they did against Tennessee last Saturday. This means Wall and Bledsoe being more patient with the ball and recognizing when they can draw two defenders at a time to find open gaps from the wing. If Kentucky has a good shooting night, they should escape with a huge conference road win and take another big step toward a top seed in the tourney.
