Kentucky went into a hostile road environment Tuesday night and took the best shot from a talented Mississippi State team in desperate need of a win. Here are a five big post-game thoughts:
1. Patrick Patterson was clutch Tuesday. He rebounded better than he has in weeks. He also made his free throws and hit the huge jumper to tie the game in regulation. That is the Patterson Kentucky needs to see in the tournament.
2. The Kentucky big men just absolutely erase you inside. When they block shots and rebound like they did tonight, it’s gonna be tough for anyone to beat them. In particular, DeMarcus Cousins has become a total beast on the interior, and his rebounding and scoring dominance reduced opposing center Jarvis Varnado (statistically one of the best bigs in the nation) to an afterthought.
3. The Cats’ youth showed in Starkville. Late in regulation, they had a series of three straight possessions where UK guards jacked up shots without taking more than five seconds off the shot clock. They have to show more patience than that.
4. DeAndre Liggins seems to be gradually making his way up to the point where he is a top three option offensively for Kentucky. Coach Cal showed a lot of confidence in him by leaving him on the floor for the entirety of overtime. He is now the defensive stopper who Kentucky will task with guarding opposing teams’ leading scorers.
5. If Mississippi State can finish the SEC season strong, they will likely get into the tourney. They dont have a great resume but playing that game Tuesday night on ESPN really helped their profile. That is a sign that Kentucky is back on the map—when an opposing team can lose to the Cats and it actually helps them.
Kentucky went into a hostile arena Tuesday night and, with the eyes of a national TV audience upon them, showed serious moxie in beating the Mississippi State Bulldogs 81-75 in overtime.
The game was officiated very closely, as both teams were called for a number of ticky-tack contact fouls from the start. MSU center Jarvis Varnado missed 16 minutes of the second half after picking up his second, third and fourth fouls right around the 18:00 minute mark.
With Varnado sitting most of the game, DeMarcus Cousins was a man child around the goal, finishing on a number of put back offensive rebounds. Unfortunately, he also was unable to play for long stretches due to foul trouble. Without him playing consistent minutes, UK once again struggled to score in the halfcourt set.
Thankfully for the Wildcats, Patrick Patterson decided to show up Tuesday, scoring 19 points and pulling in 10 boards. His highlights included a number of solid, low-post offensive moves as well as a game-tying jumper from the baseline that sent the game into overtime.
UK also received good play from Darius Miller in typical unsuspecting fashion. He made some huge shots in the second half, including a stretch of seven straight points at a time when the Cats had fallen behind by four.
MSU’s Dee Bost played a sensational game, seemingly driving by UK’s big men and scoring layups all night long. The Bulldogs also got clutch shooting from Barry Stewart and some key offensive rebound stick backs from Romero Osby.
As we’ve stated in the past, it’s obvious to the BBL that UK’s inexperienced guards will struggle significantly against veteran backcourts. They are easily pushed around when screened and routinely give up back door cuts due to a lack of concentration and focus. This is a recipe for disaster in a closely guarded and officiated NCAA tournament game.
Ultimately, Kentucky fought valiantly to win this game. The Cats outscored MSU 7-0 over the final three minutes of regulation, triggered by a huge three from DeAndre Liggins with about 2:00 to play. In overtime, UK’s size and depth overpowered MSU, which by that time was without Varnado, who had already fouled out.
We would be remiss not to mention that, as if on cue, John Wall became superman in the last two minutes of OT. Wall broke a 72-72 tie with a hanging, acrobatic layup, where he got fouled and hit the free throw to put UK up three. On MSU’s ensuing possession, he pinned a Bost layup attempt against the backboard to deny the Bulldogs a chance to get within one. Wall barely missed a triple-double on the night, ending up with 18 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.
Mississippi State also played their hearts out and kept the pressure on Kentucky by hitting some incredibly deep three pointers late in the game. The Bulldogs, desperately in need of a win to bolster their NCAA tournament resume, were playing without leading scorer Ravern Johnson who was suspended for breaking team rules.
UK was lucky to get out of Starkville with a win, proving how difficult it is to win on the road in a BCS conference. In fact, the BBL predicted a loss here earlier in the season. Now, at 25-1, Kentucky’s season is beginning to look historic. But Saturday’s game at Vanderbilt should be another huge challenge.
It’s now looking more and more likely that UK will receive a No. 1 seed in the tournament. This would be an absolutely tremendous achievement in Coach Calipari’s first season at UK.
And so the regular season comes down to this. The Kentucky Wildcats, 24-1 overall and 9-1 in the SEC, embark this week on a brutal six-game stretch that will test the mettle of this young team and go a long way toward dictating the fate of the 2009-10 season.
Four of the games will be on the road, and five out of the six come versus teams still deserving strong consideration for NCAA tournament bids. None figure to be cake walks.
Murderer’s row starts off Tuesday night in Starkville against a dangerous Mississippi State team that the BBL feels is one of the few squads in the nation not at a disadvantage athletically when matching up with the Cats. When breaking down the schedule earlier this season, we actually predicted a loss for Kentucky in this game. Though the Bulldogs have struggled this year, nothing changes in our assessment of how these teams match up.
Personnel at a Glance
MSU is a tall, rangy team with a lot of active leapers who will rebound, scrap and block shots. Defensively they are the best team in the conference in points allowed, and it all revolves around 6-9 center Jarvis Varnado, who is 16 blocks shy of the NCAA record.
Offensively, point guard Dee Bost has a quick first step and can get into the lane or pull up and hit outside jumpers. He’s coming off a huge game vs. Auburn where he scored 32 points and hit seven threes. State has a bevy of wing scorers in Phil Turner, Ravern Johnson and Barry Stewart, none of whom are scared to pull the trigger from long range.
They go about eight deep and have an assortment of good rebounders, starting with Varnado, who pulls down an SEC leading 11.3 per game.
Plan of Attack
Mississippi State will attempt to drive the lane early to loosen up Kentucky’s perimeter defense. If the Bulldogs can find creases in UK’s halfcourt defense, the Cats will need to watch for kick outs and be ready to close on three point shooters. None of State’s shooters need a lot of daylight to pull.
On the defensive side of the ball, MSU will likely follow the now standard blueprint for teams playing Kentucky and run a 2-3 matchup zone with Varnado manning the middle. Varnado is giving up a couple inches and about 30 pounds to DeMarcus Cousins, but with his condor like wingspan and uncanny timing, he will be a tough obstacle to shoot over for Cousins or any Wildcat who gets into the lane.
A big X-factor in this game could be MSU’s Kodi Augustus, a broad shouldered 6-8 power forward who can play out on the perimeter. He’ll likely draw Patrick Patterson away from the basket and look to slash.
All in all, it’s likely to be raining three point shots for most of the game, and if MSU’s outside jumpers are falling, they have a good shot to win.
BBL’s Take
Kentucky will be facing a hostile crowd in “Stark-Vegas” as the Bulldogs need this victory to put themselves squarely into the NCAA field of 65. MSU has struggled through the middle part of the SEC season, but hasn’t lost a conference home game since last year. Without question this will be the toughest road setting the Cats have played in up to this point.
Kentucky will need to get out to a good start and hope to get some transition buckets to silence a raucous crowd. State will try to take away the penetration of John Wall and Eric Bledsoe, but if the Cats can find a way to get the ball to the middle and pull Varnado away from the basket, they should find a lot of open looks.
UK will also need to attack the zone more effectively than they did against Tennessee last Saturday. This means Wall and Bledsoe being more patient with the ball and recognizing when they can draw two defenders at a time to find open gaps from the wing. If Kentucky has a good shooting night, they should escape with a huge conference road win and take another big step toward a top seed in the tourney.
Let us start with a mea culpa. Rumors of the SEC’s resurgence were greatly exaggerated. And the BBL was as wrong as anyone.
Tennessee looked pedestrian through 12 games, and after suspending 4 scholarship players, including leading scorer Tyler Smith, they look potentially like a lower tier conference team. Mississippi State, despite a stacked roster of experienced ballers, simply hasn’t put it together at all, losing stunners to Rider, Richmond and Western Kentucky in the early season.
Vandy has some quality wins, but hasn’t been able to avoid its own dreadful slip ups, and while Florida started out with big wins over Florida State and Michigan State, the Gators have returned to earth with a recent three-game skid. South Carolina lost its best inside player Dominique Archie for the year to injury and kicked another solid contributor, Mike Holmes, off the team. Alabama, Georgia and LSU have shown some life but simply don’t have the pieces yet, while Auburn and Arkansas have been downright dreadful.
But it’s not all bad news for the conference. There have been a smattering of good out of conference wins by the league, and Ole Miss, in particular, has gotten off to a hot start behind a stellar backcourt. And of course, with Kentucky’s flashy 15-0 start, the Cats are carrying the banner for the conference quite well. If the season ended today, the SEC would get at least five teams and perhaps as many as six in the NCAA tourney–a far cry from the three it received last year.
As the Cats get ready to open the conference season, we’ll offer a short take on how we see them faring against the league this year, and why.
SEC East
Florida - UF will have trouble against Kentucky due to its small guards and relatively thin frontcourt. While the Gators possess some good offensive weapons, they are a terrible personnel matchup with Kentucky, as the Cats long armed defenders will give UF problems out on the perimeter. The contest in Gainesville could be close, but we aren’t expecting it to be.
Georgia - The Dawgs will fight hard (starting this weekend in Rupp) and cannot be underestimated. Wins vs. Georgia Tech and Illinois show that they can play well above their talent level. But it would take a biblical collapse by Kentucky to lose to a team that they out-man in every phase of the game.
South Carolina - SC was looking like the Cats’ biggest challenge in the East, what with their hot shooting backcourt and athletic big men. But without Holmes and Archie, both double digit scorers and the ‘Cocks’ two leading rebounders, they will be hard pressed to contend with UK’s deep lineup of athletic post scorers.
Tennessee - If Tennessee gets their suspended players back, then the matchup at Thomson-Boling Arena in Knoxville could be interesting. UT isn’t much of shooting team, but when whole, they have a lineup deep and athletic enough to run with Kentucky player for player.
Vandy - The Commodores haven’t realized their talent yet, but have an array of good outside shooters that could give Kentucky problems. Moreover, this is a bigger and more athletic Vandy team than in years past, as Kevin Stallings has clearly kicked recruiting up a notch. UK at Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 20 will be one to circle on the calendar.
SEC West
Alabama - Bama has looked solid for stretches, and will be battle tested after a rugged out of conference schedule. They are athletic and deep enough to make things interesting, but pulling off a W in February at Rupp is a tall order.
Arkansas - The Razorbacks acquitted themselves rather well vs. a Texas team similar in talent to UK, so you know the potential is there. Rotnei Clarke has been an absolute revelation for John Pelphrey’s crew, but off-court distractions and a horrible preseason will be tough obstacles to overcome. Winning at Kentucky doesn’t look highly probable.
Auburn - The Tigers don’t have the scoring prowess to keep the pressure on a team like Kentucky, and rebounding has been a problem for them. They might be better than their record shows, but will need a disastrous game from UK to pull off the stunner. Luckily, they get the Cats on the Plains.
LSU - LSU has suffered some really tough losses to quality opponents and will be tested by mid-season. They are young and lacking in depth, size and the ability to defend. This is another matchup that is hard to see as being much of a challenge for Kentucky, which possesses a significant talent edge.
Mississippi State - If Kentucky is going to lose a conference game, we still think this will be the one. In Starkville on Feb. 16 before a national TV audience on ESPN. The house will be rocking. MSU has a deep and speedy backcourt and at least five different guys who can shoot from long distance. Jarvis Varnardo and John Riek provide the interior heft to keep the Cats honest. As much as MSU has struggled this year, this still has the makings of an absolute classic.
Ole Miss - The Rebs are looking strong at 12-2 headed into conference play and have enough offensive weapons to make a nice run at a strong NCAA tourney seed. But quite simply, we don’t see them coming into Rupp and pulling off the shocker. They are a small, guard oriented lineup that likes to shoot a lot of jumpers and rely on their athleticism to get to loose balls and pick up garbage points. But Kentucky’s halfcourt defense and great ability to block shots and rebound just don’t bode well for Ole Miss.
BBL Take – It might sound like hyperbole, but we think it would be a bad bet to pick UK to lose a conference game. There are four road tests where it seems most likely–Jan. 12 at Florida, Feb. 16 at Miss State, Feb. 20 at Vandy and Feb. 27 at Tennessee. Obviously anything can happen between now and late February, but at this point it would take significant injury or utterly hellacious shooting to see UK lose at home to anyone. For the sake of fairness, and because we realistically think it will happen at some point, we’re gonna pick a Kentucky loss at Mississippi State and a 15-1 SEC regular season record…it all starts Saturday.
With football season winding to a close and basketball season already a quarter of the way through, we thought we’d stop and throw out some superlatives for the early year.
Best Team – Syracuse
Hard to go with anyone else. The Orange entered the season unranked and coming off an exhibition loss to mighty LeMoyne. All that feels like ancient history now after a 10-game tear that included thorough dominations of highly ranked North Carolina, Cal and Florida. But it’s not just the wins. It’s the way they’ve come. The Cuse has the perfect athletic personnel to employ Jim Boeheim’s trademark matchup 2-3 zone, which is causing opponents fits. With two interchangeable point guards, a sharp shooter from the wing, beef up front and a do-it-all star in Wesley Johnson, this team has no weaknesses. Will be a tough out in March.
Best Story – Kentucky
Sure, we’re completely biased, but has anything captured the college hoops headlines so far the way Calipari’s Cats have? The quick turnaround from SEC also-ran to legit natty title contender has been a development few could have predicted only 9 months ago. The transformation is largely attributable to the breakout sensation that is John Wall. We don’t need to go into detail.
Best Conference – Big Ten
We don’t want to admit it, but the Big Ten boasts the best top to bottom resume thus far. Purdue has solid wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest, Illinois topped Vandy and Clemson, Michigan State beat Gonzaga and Wisconsin defeated Duke. Northwestern, Minnesota and Ohio State also have combined for some good wins over the likes of Notre Dame, NC State, Seton Hall, California and Butler.
Biggest Sleeper – (Tie) Louisville and Mississippi State
Louisville is a train wreck right now. Really no other way to put it. Losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte don’t happen to teams playing great basketball. But don’t be fooled. The Cards have had sluggish pre-conference seasons the past three years, and in each case, they contended for the Big East title (winning it twice). This year should be no different. With a healthy backcourt and quickly developing young talent like Peyton Siva, it’s just a matter of time.
Mississippi State seems to be rounding into form. After head scratching losses to Rider and Richmond, the Bulldogs have started putting it together, winning four consecutive games by double digits, including blowouts of DePaul and UCLA. While the Renardo Sidney eligibility controversy continues, MSU got some good news this week when 7-1 center John Riek became eligible. Riek is a potential high NBA draft pick with a ridiculous 8-foot wingspan. Put that next to shot blocking demon Jarvis Varnardo and you have one imposing front line. If they get Sidney back, watch out, a Final Four run is not unreasonable.
Biggest Dud – UCLA
We knew this season would be tough for Coach Ben Howland’s Bruins. But we didn’t think it would be this tough. Of course, losing five early draft entries in a two-year period and playing a grueling early schedule explains it well. The truth is that UCLA simply hasn’t found a ballhandler to replace departed Darren Collison, and no one has stepped up to be the go-to scorer. Thankfully for the Bru-Crew, the Pac 10 is down this year and this young team will have a chance to turn things around in conference play.
Best Player – Wesley Johnson
Not John Wall, you ask? Wall is special for sure. And by year’s end, he may occupy this spot. But he simply turns the ball over too much to be tabbed as top candidate for player of the year. Instead, we’ll go with the best player on the team that looks the best so far. Johnson leads the Cuse in scoring (17 ppg), rebounding (8 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). But it’s his presence as an electric dunker and the long-armed disrupter in the 2-3 zone that really spurs the Orange attack.
Best Game – UK 64 UConn 61
This one’s a no brainer. A star-studded Madison Square Garden crowd. Old coaching rivals going toe to toe. Two of basketball’s regal programs in a rare early season out of conference clash. Photo finish. The brilliance of John Wall. It will be tough to top this one all year.
As part of our series of snapshot previews of UK opponents, the BBL takes a first look at Rick Stansbury’s Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Backcourt
This might be the most underrated backcourt in all of college hoops. Last year MSU won the SEC tourney with freshmen and sophomores playing significant minutes. Now this group is a year older and battle tested. PG Dee Bost was a revelation as a frosh averaging 11 points and 5 dimes. Barry Stewart is a 3-year starter and a deadly three-point shooter who can also score off the bounce. Ravern Johnson was third in the SEC in 3-pointers made and can flat out stroke it. Then there is the lockdown defender Phil Turner. This group is big time and ready to compete for more than just a tourney bid.
Frontcourt
Jarvis Varnado is a freak of nature underneath the goal. He is on pace to become the NCAA’s all time leading shot blocker, needing 142 to break the record after swatting 170 last season. The scary part is that Varnado, who also averaged 13 points and 9 boards last year, is said to have gained 25 pounds of muscle over the summer. His ceiling is NBA lottery high. Factor in two big-time post recruits (if they become eligible) and Miss. State could be a legitimate national title contender. We’re dead serious. Holdovers Romero Osby and Kodi Augustus give this team strong post depth.
Freshmen
7′2 do-it-all center John Riek and 6′9 275-pound Renardo Sidney are potential “one and doners” if the NCAA lets them see the floor. These two rival any 1-2 freshman combo in America, including Wall-Cousins. But gaining eligibility is no sure thing for either. Shaunessy Smith adds another scorer and athlete deluxe who at 6′6 is long and capable of defending the 1, 2 or 3 positions. Wendell Lewis is a 6′9 athlete who will learn while playing behind Varnado. This is a stellar class.
Outlook
The BBL is high on this team’s potential. To say they are a sleeper is an insult to knowledgeable fans. If Riek and Sidney are cleared to play and everyone stays healthy, this team is a threat to win 30 games. They have no glaring weaknesses.
BBL Take
The Cats play them on February 16th in Starkville, and it should make for a hell of a matchup. Looking at the rosters right now, it would be a pick ‘em contest. This is the only SEC team we wouldn’t give UK a decided advantage over on paper. These guys are really good and potentially great.
