Feb 212010

After impressive back-to-back road wins this past week, the Kentucky Wildcats improved their record to 26-1 overall and 11-1 in the SEC and, more importantly, virtually assured themselves of a No. 1 seed when the NCAA tournament brackets are announced March 14.

In their win over Vandy Saturday night, the Cats once again showed the nation that they are capable of beating good teams even when not playing their best basketball. While Kentucky’s youngsters were far from a portrait of maturity for most of the evening, they simply found a way to win the game at crunch time.

So, where to next for Kentucky?

Finishing Strong
The Cats could very well lose another game or two before the Big Dance. But an SEC regular season championship would be wrapped up with two more victories. The Cats will start the quest to close out strong with a revenge game this Thursday vs. South Carolina at Rupp. Needless to say, the Gamecocks, a horrible road team as it is, will not have the element of surprise in this one and, barring a superhuman effort from Devan Downey, we like Kentucky to roll in this one.

Then it’s back on the road for the Cats—at Tennessee on Feb. 27 and at Georgia on March 3. The Vols have shown they can beat anyone at home, as evidenced by their January victory over top ranked Kansas.

Georgia, despite a 4-8 SEC record, has been surprisingly tough at home, boasting a 12-3 record in home games, with impressive victories over the likes of Vandy, Tennessee and Georgia Tech. If there is a trap game left on the Cats schedule, this is it. UGA gave Kentucky a run for its money last month at Rupp and cannot be underestimated. The Cats finish at home March 7th on senior day against Florida.

The BBL feels that UK can actually lose two of these four and still earn a No. 1 seed, provided they don’t fall in the first round of the SEC tournament. At this point, however, we think UK is a lock to notch the school’s 12th 30-win season.

Tourney Prospects

Right now, the leading contenders for the top four seeds in the tourney include Kansas, Kentucky, Syracuse and Purdue, probably in that order. The next four seeds look likely to come from Villanova, Duke, Kansas State, Michigan State, West Virginia, Ohio State and Georgetown.

The four tournament regionals are in Salt Lake City, St. Louis, Houston and Syracuse. Kansas, as the potential overall top seed, looks like a lock to get sent down the road to St. Louis. After that, things get a little more interesting.

Syracuse, assuming they hold onto a top seed, cannot play a regional at home per NCAA rules, so the Orange will have to be sent either to Houston or Salt Lake City. Because Kentucky will almost certainly be one of the top two overall seeds, the selection committee will want to keep them as close to home as possible, which more than likely rules out SLC.

So Cat fans, for any of you planning to travel, we recommend limiting your search to two cities—Syracuse (667 miles from Lexington) or Houston (1,070 miles away). The BBL’s best guess is that UK will be sent to the more natural confines of the South Regional in Houston, while Syracuse will be sent west and the fourth No. 1 (Purdue, Villanova or Duke) will go to the Carrier Dome.

As for the first round, the Cats will almost certainly play in Milwaukee, which is the closest venue to home for Kentucky. UK has never played a tournament game in Milwaukee, but if there is any bright side to this venue, it’s that Kentucky is assured to not play Marquette in the first or second round. Marquette, of course, has knocked the Cats out of the tourney the last three times the programs have met. So there’s that.

BBL’s Take
It’s difficult to start speculating about actual opponents at this juncture. But we can talk a little about what kind of environments the Cats are likely to see, and what kinds fans should hope they do not.

Probably the scariest type of team Kentucky can be matched up with is one that plays physical halfcourt defense and can shoot well from the perimeter. UK has done a good job neutralizing good perimeter shooting teams of late (Vanderbilt and Mississippi State last week, in particular). But it should be noted that Kentucky could have easily lost both of those games had either team done just a tad bit better than a combined 12 for 55 from three-point land. Teams that fit this bill include Syracuse, Kansas and West Virginia, but none of them would be likely to play UK before a regional final.

In a tournament-style setting, Kentucky will obviously be faced with officials used to doing games in other conferences. This is a bit of a crap shoot, but officials from the Big Ten or Big East may be used to calling low-scoring games with a lot of whistles blown. In general, there tend to be more fouls called during the NCAA tournament than the regular season. This would force the Cats to shoot more free throws and potentially subject the vaunted front court to foul trouble.

With the win or go home format, Kentucky’s considerable youth will be faced with the pressure of more intense moments. Moreover, playing games on short rest and with little time to prepare for different styles could have an impact on a team that has at times lacked mental focus.

The first season on John Calipari’s watch has been nothing short of magnificent. But for a program with a tradition as proud as Kentucky’s, what happens in March is what ultimately defines the season.

Feb 022010

Jay Williams said it after the game and we’ll say it, too. When this Kentucky team is knocking down shots from the perimeter, they may be unbeatable. Ironic considering one of the single biggest concerns entering the season was whether this Wildcat edition could shoot the ball.

Looks like the question is answered. The Cats hit 9 of 19 from deep, and shot 50% from the floor overall en route to a 10-point victory over Ole Miss at Rupp Arena Tuesday. On the season, Kentucky is now shooting 39% from three and just a shade below 50% from the floor.

Here are some other takeaways after the Mississippi win:

After failing to get out on the break much vs. South Carolina and Vandy, the Cats got back to running a bit Tuesday, throwing down some monster dunks and bringing back the aerial theatrics that have marked their play for much of the year.

Big Cuz was a man beast in the paint again tonight, ripping down boards and going to the rack relentlessly. The amazing thing about Cousins is that he can complement his strength and size with some amazing athleticism and body control.

Darnell Dodson appears to have taken the starting spot from Darius Miller, and he promptly made good on it by dropping 14 points on 4-5 shooting from deep. Dodson’s release is quick and he holds the ball high on his 6-7 frame, making it incredibly difficult to defend. Right now, he is a stone cold assassin.

It was good to see Miller knock down a three and put in a few good minutes off the bench. We were beginning to worry that he might be psychologically broken. He still looked a little clueless at times, but when he’s aggressive and looks for his shot, he is a different player. It will be interesting to see him next season when some of the superstar potential clears off the roster.

Speaking of potential, it was also nice to see Orton showing a couple strong offensive moves around the basket. He’ll need to work on his touch and overall court awareness, but this is a kid who has struggled with injuries the past two seasons. He’s just now coming into his own.

The BBL has mentioned it in the past, but we’ll say it again. It would not shock us to see this team produce four first round NBA draft choices later this summer in Cousins, John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and Patrick Patterson. Bledsoe’s ridiculous speed and jumping ability make him a distinct first round possibility in a PG-weak draft. A bigger question might be whether Patterson is still first round material (he almost certainly was last year).

Ole Miss fought hard despite being undersized and outmanned. If they get starting center Reggie Buckner back healthy and avoid an SEC stretch collapse, they could be a tough out in the tourney. According to Coach Calipari, more than 20 NBA scouts were in attendance tonight to watch two of the best backcourts in the nation.

Jan 282010

1) The Commodores come into this game with possibly their deepest team in the Kevin Stallings era. Ten players are averaging nine minutes or more per game and four of them are averaging double figures in points. Vandy returned seven of its top eight scorers from last season and added one of the school’s biggest recruits of the past decade in John Jenkins, a 6-5 guard who is averaging 11 points per game on a sick 49% percentage from behind the three point arc. This roster possesses a variety of weapons.

2) This year’s Vandy squad is a bit different from past editions in two primary ways. First of all, they are athletic and have several players who can slash and jump. Second, they are not just a perimeter oriented team that beats you with the long ball. This team has some size up front, and with the offensive game of A.J. Ogilvy, they will feed the post when they need a bucket. That said, they still shoot nearly 38% from long range and will knock down open jumpers all day.

3) How the Cats decide to defend Vanderbilt in the post will be something to watch. The 6-11 Ogilvy is more of finesse player with a face up jumper, while DeMarcus Cousins is an immovable force in the post. Vandy forward Jeffery Taylor is an athletic combo player who can also mix it up inside a bit. Will UK try to counter him with Patrick Patterson, or leave it to one of the wings?

4) Kentucky cannot expect to dominate this game, nor should the Cats expect the homecourt advantage to be as overwhelming as it was last weekend. Vanderbilt has been strong on the road, winning games at Saint Mary’s, Alabama, Tennessee and two weeks ago in Columbia. Most educated consumers of UK hoops have had the date at Memorial Coliseum in Nashville circled since the summer, but make no mistake, this team will come into Rupp expecting to win.

5) The Cats have come back down to earth and will likely leave the top spot in next week’s polls, win or lose this weekend. After a thrilling 19-game win streak to start the season, how will a relatively young UK squad handle its first bit of adversity? Vandy is a team that matches up relatively well with Kentucky’s deep and talented roster. The ‘Dores are experienced and go two-deep at every position. PG Jermaine Beal is battle tested and can handle the ball well enough to withstand Kentucky’s defensive pressure. The rest of the roster has enough athletes to run with the Cats, too. We expect a very close game.

Jan 282010

Well, that was fast.

One week ago today, the BBL wrote here that “greatness can come in a flash, and be taken away even quicker.” No, we didn’t have Devan Downey in mind when we uttered those words, but we might as well have been discussing the diminutive South Carolina guard after the way he completely dictated the game in Kentucky’s deflating loss Tuesday night in Columbia, S.C.

True, many in the Big Blue Nation are having their trademark panic attack over the loss and yes, some in the national media are already taking on a rather satisfied air now that the “will UK go undefeated” stories have come to an end (without naming names, there are at least two “experts” under the employ of the worldwide leader who seem a little too happy about the upset).

But the real question is, how bad did this loss hurt and what did we as observers learn from it?

A Perfect Night for an Upset
From the start, it felt like it was going to be a rough night for the Cats. Those who watched the game on ESPN probably recall at least two or three occasions when commentator Jimmy Dykes said something to the effect of: in order to pull the upset, X, Y or Z have to happen. It’s safe to say now that they did.

Here are a few numbers from the game that must seem a little surprising to anyone who has watched Kentucky with even a passing interest this season:

• Patrick Patterson scored 5 points, Darius Miller had zero
• The Kentucky bench was woeful, scoring only 7 points in a total of about 48 minutes
• The Cats shot 38% from the field, about 12 percentage points below their season average
• South Carolina blocked 8 shots to UK’s 5 (we think this is the first time all year the opponent has had more blocks)

This is only part of the story, however. More specifically, this is just what the numbers tell us. To anyone who watched the game, the problems ran much deeper. The Cats were outhustled. SC beat them to loose balls. The big men for the home team were far more aggressive. UK lobbed lackadaisical passes on more than one occasion late in the game. The team in blue missed a number of chip shots and important free throws.

And frankly, Kentucky also got unlucky. There were several critical moments that told the story of the game. The first came at around the 7:00 minute mark, when a loose ball that looked like it might turn into a UK steal and breakaway instead dropped into the lap of Brandis Raley-Ross who converted an easy layup.

A minute later, with Kentucky down two, Darnell Dodson got a backcourt steal but somehow missed the uncontested dunk. One minute after that, in what might have been the play of the year so far in the SEC, Downey caught an inbounds pass and nailed a ridiculous baseline fadeaway at the shot clock buzzer. He got fouled on the play and hit the free throw to put SC up three, a lead which they held for good.

What Can We Take Away?
People often talk about a team’s first loss serving as a “good loss” for the long term health of the season. I don’t necessarily agree with this sentiment, but I do think that, for a roster as young as Kentucky’s, the pressure of trying to be the first team in 34 years to win every game could potentially be more of a burden than a blessing. Now that it’s out of the way, can we expect to see more losses?

Wall and Bledsoe need to clean it up. We’ve discussed it all year. UK’s backcourt is as spectacular as any we’ve seen in the nation, but the turnovers and reckless play could really come back to haunt them. This was definitely the case versus the Gamecocks. Nine turnovers and a lot of bad decision making from UK’s guards hurt.

Patterson and Miller, where did you go? Miller followed up his best game as a Wildcat with possibly his worst. He continues to be an enigma. Patterson has been steady all year but has laid eggs now in both of his last two trips to Columbia. He needs to play tougher and look to get involved in the offense. Kentucky should go to him more often as well.

Must stop dribble penetration. It may be true that UK won’t be facing too many more Downeys this year, but after the “olay” defensive effort last night, the Cats will need to stop guards who get to the rack. This weekend’s game vs. Vandy will be a good first test, as guards Jermaine Beal and Jeffrey Taylor can get to the hoop as well as shoot from deep.

Bench production is key. We already mentioned it, but Kentucky will need its bench to do more than what it showed in this one. Ramon Harris, Perry Stevenson, DeAndre Liggins and Daniel Orton combined to take only three shots and commit five fouls. That’s inexcusable.

Lowpost lapse. Things started out well. Cousins, Patterson and Orton scored 17 of UK’s 29 first half points and had a distinct rebound advantage over a depleted SC frontcourt. But it was a tale of two halves as UK’s bigs wilted down the stretch and allowed Carolina’s no-name big men to block and alter shots and ultimately win the rebounding margin.

BBL Take
The Cats have the nation’s most talented roster, top to bottom, in our estimation. The BBL thinks this will ultimately be borne out by the fact that as many as six or seven players on the current roster have a legitimate shot to be selected in the NBA draft.

Up to this point, Calipari has done a masterful job of taking this talent and meshing it, despite a difficult mixture of holdovers from the former regime and fresh-faced youngsters. But Kentucky must play better. Road games at Mississippi State, Vandy, Tennessee and Georgia should put them to the test.

Sounds easy to say, but we think of the South Carolina loss as more of an aberration than a sign of major trouble. Despite some of the alarming trends in this lackluster performance, Kentucky still managed to keep the game within one possession down to the final 10 seconds. Chalk this one up to a bad night on the road where the opposing team got every bounce and Downey, despite his small stature, stood taller than everyone else on the court in refusing to let his team lose.

There will be better days.

Jan 162010

Kentucky was fortunate to escape with a 5-point win today at Auburn after a sloppy performance where John Wall and Eric Bledsoe combined for 10 turnovers.

In what was probably his worst game as a collegian, Wall consistently over-penetrated and fell victim to a scrappy Auburn defense that got its hands in passing lanes and kicked and scratched Kentucky into 16 miscues as a team.

All in all, it was simply an ugly game for the Cats, underlining the type of Super Bowl effort Kentucky will see from opponents in every SEC game this year.

Auburn kept things interesting with good defense and some well timed three pointers. Ultimately, Kentucky had a little too much firepower for the Tigers, as Wall redeemed himself with clutch foul shooting and a dazzling driving layup in the game’s final two minutes.

What did we learn today?

  • Calipari has shown himself to be a wizard in personnel management and player rotations. Around the 11:00 minute mark, with the Cats clinging to a 1-point lead, Cal gave DeAndre Liggins a short pep talk and then put him into the game for the first time since early in the first half. Liggins responded with a clutch three, a layup and a critical rebound to seal the win in the final minute.
  • The closer than expected score illustrates the difficulty Kentucky will have if they want to make a run at a perfect season. Auburn came into the game at 9-8 and without a victory over a single notable opponent yet this season. Despite vastly inferior talent and being outsized, the Tigers kept their home crowd into the game and had the margin down to one possession with a minute to play.
  • Kentucky again shot poorly from the free throw stripe and again failed to put away a lesser opponent after building a big double digit lead early on. These problems continue to plague the Cats, and along with the turnovers, seem to represent UK’s achilles heel.
  • Daniel Orton only received 7 minutes today in a game where Cal obviously wanted to see more offense in the half court set. Stevenson and Harris were largely non-factors and Dodson missed several shots badly. We think the Cats will need to get better overall bench production and probably average around 20-25 points per game from Liggins, Orton and Dodson, with anything provided by the two seniors being a bonus.
Jan 122010

Closing out the game on a 17-5 run that included clutch threes by Darnell Dodson and Eric Bledsoe, Kentucky once again showed the ability to perform under pressure and demonstrate poise well beyond its youth in an 89-77 victory at Florida.

But despite dominating the stat lines, the Cats failed once again to put an opponent away when the opportunity presented itself. Here’s what you need to know about the game:

Wall and Bledsoe are virtually impossible to guard at the college level. Their ability to push the ball past and through fullcourt pressure is uncanny. When one of these two is getting past the defense and into the lane, Kentucky’s offense is lethal.

Bledsoe is almost certainly an NBA lottery pick when he decides to leave. It is positively scary to think that his long term pro stock might be every bit as high as John Wall’s. As we have mentioned on here before, agreeing to be the secondary ballhandler on this team must have been a difficult choice for EB and both he and Wall have handled it with grace and maturity. But make no mistake. If Wall was not around, Bledsoe would be hitting the highlight reels as often as his backcourt mate. We dearly hope he sticks around for next year, but with every passing minute, it seems less and less likely.

Even on an off-night Patterson, Cousins and Orton are a formidable inside presence. Orton is like a human fly swatter, batting balls into the stands with regularity. Watching Florida’s post players try to get shots off around the glass with him lurking was amusing. If and when he develops an offensive game, he could be an All-American. He will have to work on his touch, which is abysmal right now.

Miller showed more aggressiveness tonight and stepped up to take some pretty big shots. In particular, his jumper to put UK up 3 with about 6:00 minutes to play was a shot we didn’t expect him to think about. He also held his own inside and pulled in a few tough boards. Meanwhile, Liggins took a bit of  a step back in limited minutes, turning it over twice and looking sheepish.

When the game was tied at 72-72 inside of 5:00 to play, we were pleased to see Kentucky go to the elder statesman, Patrick Patterson, who promptly hit a turn around hook, got fouled and silenced the crowd. The Cats never looked back after that.

BBL Take: Kentucky was the superior team in almost every facet of the game, but still let Florida get back into it, mostly due to hot three-point shooting by Erving Walker and a rowdy home crowd. The Cats’ inability to put teams away is mildly concerning, but going on the road and beating a conference foe as solid as UF by double digits is yet another statement for this team in its possible quest to make history.

People are taking notice of this 17-0 squad, even some who should have known by now. For instance, we caught this Tweet by ESPN hoops analyst Andy Katz during tonight’s game:

“Kentucky can reach Final Four and compete for title. I see it more than ever with speed, size, rebounding, shooting.”

Uh, ya think Andy?

Jan 082010

This is a nice piece on how the Cats are picking up the profile of the entire SEC.

http://www.facebook.com/search/?q=starbucks&init=quick#/pages/The-Big-Blue-Lowdown/175409819516?ref=ts

All in all the Cats are prohibitive favorites to win the league. But the SEC looks ready to send five or six teams to the big dance, where someone other than Kentucky could make an impact.

Jan 062010

Let us start with a mea culpa. Rumors of the SEC’s resurgence were greatly exaggerated. And the BBL was as wrong as anyone.

Tennessee looked pedestrian through 12 games, and after suspending 4 scholarship players, including leading scorer Tyler Smith, they look potentially like a lower tier conference team. Mississippi State, despite a stacked roster of experienced ballers, simply hasn’t put it together at all, losing stunners to Rider, Richmond and Western Kentucky in the early season.

Vandy has some quality wins, but hasn’t been able to avoid its own dreadful slip ups, and while Florida started out with big wins over Florida State and Michigan State, the Gators have returned to earth with a recent three-game skid. South Carolina lost its best inside player Dominique Archie for the year to injury and kicked another solid contributor, Mike Holmes, off the team. Alabama, Georgia and LSU have shown some life but simply don’t have the pieces yet, while Auburn and Arkansas have been downright dreadful.

But it’s not all bad news for the conference. There have been a smattering of good out of conference wins by the league, and Ole Miss, in particular, has gotten off to a hot start behind a stellar backcourt. And of course, with Kentucky’s flashy 15-0 start, the Cats are carrying the banner for the conference quite well. If the season ended today, the SEC would get at least five teams and perhaps as many as six in the NCAA tourney–a far cry from the three it received last year.

As the Cats get ready to open the conference season, we’ll offer a short take on how we see them faring against the league this year, and why.

SEC East

Florida - UF will have trouble against Kentucky due to its small guards and relatively thin frontcourt. While the Gators possess some good offensive weapons, they are a terrible personnel matchup with Kentucky, as the Cats long armed defenders will give UF problems out on the perimeter. The contest in Gainesville could be close, but we aren’t expecting it to be.

Georgia - The Dawgs will fight hard (starting this weekend in Rupp) and cannot be underestimated. Wins vs. Georgia Tech and Illinois show that they can play well above their talent level. But it would take a biblical collapse by Kentucky to lose to a team that they out-man in every phase of the game.

South Carolina - SC was looking like the Cats’ biggest challenge in the East, what with their hot shooting backcourt and athletic big men. But without Holmes and Archie, both double digit scorers and the ‘Cocks’ two leading rebounders, they will be hard pressed to contend with UK’s deep lineup of athletic post scorers.

Tennessee - If Tennessee gets their suspended players back, then the matchup at Thomson-Boling Arena in Knoxville could be interesting. UT isn’t much of  shooting team, but when whole, they have a lineup deep and athletic enough to run with Kentucky player for player.

Vandy - The Commodores haven’t realized their talent yet, but have an array of good outside shooters that could give Kentucky problems. Moreover, this is a bigger and more athletic Vandy team than in years past, as Kevin Stallings has clearly kicked recruiting up a notch. UK at Memorial Coliseum on Feb. 20 will be one to circle on the calendar.

SEC West

Alabama - Bama has looked solid for stretches, and will be battle tested after a rugged out of conference schedule. They are athletic and deep enough to make things interesting, but pulling off a W in February at Rupp is a tall order.

Arkansas - The Razorbacks acquitted themselves rather well vs. a Texas team similar in talent to UK, so you know the potential is there. Rotnei Clarke has been an absolute revelation for John Pelphrey’s crew, but off-court distractions and a horrible preseason will be tough obstacles to overcome. Winning at Kentucky doesn’t look highly probable.

Auburn - The Tigers don’t have the scoring prowess to keep the pressure on a team like Kentucky, and rebounding has been a problem for them. They might be better than their record shows, but will need a disastrous game from UK to pull off the stunner. Luckily, they get the Cats on the Plains.

LSU - LSU has suffered some really tough losses to quality opponents and will be tested by mid-season. They are young and lacking in depth, size and the ability to defend. This is another matchup that is hard to see as being much of a challenge for Kentucky, which possesses a significant talent edge.

Mississippi State - If Kentucky is going to lose a conference game, we still think this will be the one. In Starkville on Feb. 16 before a national TV audience on ESPN. The house will be rocking. MSU has a deep and speedy backcourt and at least five different guys who can shoot from long distance. Jarvis Varnardo and John Riek provide the interior heft to keep the Cats honest. As much as MSU has struggled this year, this still has the makings of an absolute classic.

Ole Miss - The Rebs are looking strong at 12-2 headed into conference play and have enough offensive weapons to make a nice run at a strong NCAA tourney seed. But quite simply, we don’t see them coming into Rupp and pulling off the shocker. They are a small, guard oriented lineup that likes to shoot a lot of jumpers and rely on their athleticism to get to loose balls and pick up garbage points. But Kentucky’s halfcourt defense and great ability to block shots and rebound just don’t bode well for Ole Miss.

BBL Take – It might sound like hyperbole, but we think it would be a bad bet to pick UK to lose a conference game. There are four road tests where it seems most likely–Jan. 12 at Florida, Feb. 16 at Miss State, Feb. 20 at Vandy and Feb. 27 at Tennessee. Obviously anything can happen between now and late February, but at this point it would take significant injury or utterly hellacious shooting to see UK lose at home to anyone. For the sake of fairness, and because we realistically think it will happen at some point, we’re gonna pick a Kentucky loss at Mississippi State and a 15-1 SEC regular season record…it all starts Saturday.

Dec 182009

With football season winding to a close and basketball season already a quarter of the way through, we thought we’d stop and throw out some superlatives for the early year.

Best Team – Syracuse

Hard to go with anyone else. The Orange entered the season unranked and coming off an exhibition loss to mighty LeMoyne. All that feels like ancient history now after a 10-game tear that included thorough dominations of highly ranked North Carolina, Cal and Florida. But it’s not just the wins. It’s the way they’ve come. The Cuse has the perfect athletic personnel to employ Jim Boeheim’s trademark matchup 2-3 zone, which is causing opponents fits. With two interchangeable point guards, a sharp shooter from the wing, beef up front and a do-it-all star in Wesley Johnson, this team has no weaknesses. Will be a tough out in March.

Best Story – Kentucky

Sure, we’re completely biased, but has anything captured the college hoops headlines so far the way Calipari’s Cats have? The quick turnaround from SEC also-ran to legit natty title contender has been a development few could have predicted only 9 months ago. The transformation is largely attributable to the breakout sensation that is John Wall. We don’t need to go into detail.

Best Conference – Big Ten

We don’t want to admit it, but the Big Ten boasts the best top to bottom resume thus far. Purdue has solid wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest, Illinois topped Vandy and Clemson, Michigan State beat Gonzaga and Wisconsin defeated Duke. Northwestern, Minnesota and Ohio State also have combined for some good wins over the likes of Notre Dame, NC State, Seton Hall, California and Butler.

Biggest Sleeper – (Tie) Louisville and Mississippi State

Louisville is a train wreck right now. Really no other way to put it. Losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte don’t happen to teams playing great basketball. But don’t be fooled. The Cards have had sluggish pre-conference seasons the past three years, and in each case, they contended for the Big East title (winning it twice). This year should be no different. With a healthy backcourt and quickly developing young talent like Peyton Siva, it’s just a matter of time.

Mississippi State seems to be rounding into form. After head scratching losses to Rider and Richmond, the Bulldogs have started putting it together, winning four consecutive games by double digits, including blowouts of DePaul and UCLA. While the Renardo Sidney eligibility controversy continues, MSU got some good news this week when 7-1 center John Riek became eligible. Riek is a potential high NBA draft pick with a ridiculous 8-foot wingspan. Put that next to shot blocking demon Jarvis Varnardo and you have one imposing front line. If they get Sidney back, watch out, a Final Four run is not unreasonable.

Biggest Dud – UCLA

We knew this season would be tough for Coach Ben Howland’s Bruins. But we didn’t think it would be this tough. Of course, losing five early draft entries in a two-year period and playing a grueling early schedule explains it well. The truth is that UCLA simply hasn’t found a ballhandler to replace departed Darren Collison, and no one has stepped up to be the go-to scorer. Thankfully for the Bru-Crew, the Pac 10 is down this year and this young team will have a chance to turn things around in conference play.

Best Player – Wesley Johnson

Not John Wall, you ask? Wall is special for sure. And by year’s end, he may occupy this spot. But he simply turns the ball over too much to be tabbed as top candidate for player of the year. Instead, we’ll go with the best player on the team that looks the best so far. Johnson leads the Cuse in scoring (17 ppg), rebounding (8 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). But it’s his presence as an electric dunker and the long-armed disrupter in the 2-3 zone that really spurs the Orange attack.


Best Game – UK 64 UConn 61

This one’s a no brainer. A star-studded Madison Square Garden crowd. Old coaching rivals going toe to toe. Two of basketball’s regal programs in a rare early season out of conference clash. Photo finish. The brilliance of John Wall. It will be tough to top this one all year.

Dec 112009

It’s now safe to say that the BBL’s one-day scouting trip to New York to watch the Cats in action up close was a great success. The victory over UConn was a thrilling experience and, historically speaking, may someday be looked at fondly by UK fans as the day a legend was born on one of basketball’s greatest stages.

We’ll offer ongoing comments in the coming days but our trip afforded us the ability to see an incredible game in the legendary setting of Madison Square Garden, meet UK and UConn fans from around the nation, take photos with the Kentucky cheerleaders and even speak to ESPN announcer Dan Shulman for a few minutes after the game.

The takeaways:

1. With John Wall, UK can win a national title. Looking around the media landscape, John Wall fever has taken hold over America. We won’t go into the details that every major sports outlet is already  running. If you’re reading this, chances are you are well aware of this kid’s ability. All we can say is that, after seeing him live and in person, he is a difference maker of the highest order. And when he is in the game, the Cats have a chance against anyone, anywhere. If there is a criticism right now, it’s that he needs to learn to play under control a bit more. To quote Shulman, “Wall is fast, but sometimes he is too fast.”

2. Kentucky’s halfcourt defense will be ferocious by March. Most who have followed Calipari’s career over the years know that the great Final Four teams at Memphis and UMass were not about the star talents as much as they were about team defense. One of the beautiful corrollaries to the dribble drive is that all those long-armed athletes that fit the offensive scheme also make great assets on defense blocking shots, deflecting passes and causing havoc. This team is already very, very impressive in this fashion. The 13 steals and 8 blocks logged against Connecticut don’t even tell the entire story. At this point, taking the ball into the paint against Kentucky is borderline insane. This team will positively reject anything thrown up around the goal. It’s uncanny, really. They figure to only get better.

3. The Cats need to run more set plays for Dodson, Miller and Patterson
. The biggest weakness right now seems to be a lack of offensive cohesion or understanding of the system. There is also a clear dearth of good shooting. Compounding matters is the fact that when John Wall is out of the game, this team looks utterly confused. While it’s unclear whether or not a marksman will emerge from this group, UK’s secondary options after Wall seem to be these three. But asking them to create their own shots may be asking too much right now. We’d like to see some set screen plays for Dodson and Miller to get open looks and when Kentucky needs a bucket, feeding PP in the post is probably the team’s best offensive option outside of Wall creating.

4. This group does not panic, does not wilt. Yes, we kind of already knew this based on several earlier tilts that headed down to the wire. But it’s now more than obvious that these kids possess a lot of heart and scrappiness. They’ve seen all kinds of daunting scenarios in the early season–big deficits, the loss of big leads, player injuries, foul trouble–but they’ve still managed to find a way to pull things out in the end. And after back to back wins over teams that were in last year’s Final Four, it’s now clear that they aren’t just doing this against subpar competition. Makes it scary to think what they might be capable of when they put all the proverbial pieces together.

5. Coach Cal does not have it all figured out yet. We couldn’t send out this letter without offering up some bad news. Frankly, it’s difficult to pick nits right now. Kentucky is 9-0 and ranked in the top 5. They’ve just defeated two consecutive powerhouses and Wall is the toast of the sporting world. What more could we want? Truth be told, we aren’t criticizing as much as stating fact, and that is that this team is often lost, undisciplined, foul proned and vulnerable on the perimeter. Coach Cal is still trying to figure out player roles and a steady substitution pattern. Despite the success, this is a serious work in progress. And we are pretty certain Cal would agree. We still think this team is going to lose some games that people don’t expect, and we also think a bit of “coming back to earth” might even be good for it. But one thing is certain, it’s going to be a hell of a ride.