The BBL has surveyed the college hoops landscape and we see only a handful of teams that can beat UK provided that UK is on their game.
In no particular order:
Villanova
This is a really good team in the backcourt. Scotty Reynolds is a deadeye 3-point shooter and a savvy veteran. Their other guards are athletic and super quick, allowing Nova to employ constant traps in the backcourt. Their inside guys are young but big and athletic. UK would have to bring their A game to beat Jay Wright’s club in the tooney.
Texas
This is the closest team athletically and in size to UK. Texas has three really good frosh who play major minutes as well. They have two beasts in the low post in Wangmene and Pittman. Damian James is a smaller, better shooting version of Pattrick Patterson. This could very well be the NCAA title game should seedings hold in the tournament.
Syracuse
This is the one team because of their amoeba matchup 2-3 zone that every team fears in the Big Dance. They are extremely athletic in the low post and have good gap shooters in Rautins and Triche. They are not as deep as UK, Texas or Villanova but the zone allows them to get away with playing fewer players.
Kansas
This team is deep but slow. Collins, Henry and the Morris twins are the real athletes they possess. They are also not nearly as tall or long in the backcourt as UK, and we see them struggling against guards like Kentucky’s. But they are well coached and have solid tournament experience. They will be a tough out either way.
UNC/Duke/Miss State/UConn
All four of these teams have the depth, size and shooting to compete against UK. Each team has serious flaws and would have to be firing on all cylinders to take out UK in a tournament matchup. UNC is small and thin in the backcourt. Duke is slow and unathletic in the frontcourt. Miss St is just raw and very inconsistent. UConn has lots of size and talent but shoots very poorly from the perimeter and the line.
Next Tier: Georgetown/West Virginia/Vandy/Tennessee/Michigan State/Kansas State
These teams each have a few crucial shortcomings that make them a bad matchup for Kentucky. But each of them possesses enough talent and depth to possibly make a move as the season progresses. We see these six teams as being poised to make a run in March. Keep an eye on them.
This is how we see things today. Obviously, UK could lose to anyone on any day, as the close margin with Auburn illustrates. But if Kentucky is on its game, we don’t see anyone outside the teams mentioned above that can put together the kind of effort it will take to beat the Cats.
Onto Rupp next Saturday vs Arkansas.
With football season winding to a close and basketball season already a quarter of the way through, we thought we’d stop and throw out some superlatives for the early year.
Best Team – Syracuse
Hard to go with anyone else. The Orange entered the season unranked and coming off an exhibition loss to mighty LeMoyne. All that feels like ancient history now after a 10-game tear that included thorough dominations of highly ranked North Carolina, Cal and Florida. But it’s not just the wins. It’s the way they’ve come. The Cuse has the perfect athletic personnel to employ Jim Boeheim’s trademark matchup 2-3 zone, which is causing opponents fits. With two interchangeable point guards, a sharp shooter from the wing, beef up front and a do-it-all star in Wesley Johnson, this team has no weaknesses. Will be a tough out in March.
Best Story – Kentucky
Sure, we’re completely biased, but has anything captured the college hoops headlines so far the way Calipari’s Cats have? The quick turnaround from SEC also-ran to legit natty title contender has been a development few could have predicted only 9 months ago. The transformation is largely attributable to the breakout sensation that is John Wall. We don’t need to go into detail.
Best Conference – Big Ten
We don’t want to admit it, but the Big Ten boasts the best top to bottom resume thus far. Purdue has solid wins over Tennessee and Wake Forest, Illinois topped Vandy and Clemson, Michigan State beat Gonzaga and Wisconsin defeated Duke. Northwestern, Minnesota and Ohio State also have combined for some good wins over the likes of Notre Dame, NC State, Seton Hall, California and Butler.
Biggest Sleeper – (Tie) Louisville and Mississippi State
Louisville is a train wreck right now. Really no other way to put it. Losses to Western Carolina and Charlotte don’t happen to teams playing great basketball. But don’t be fooled. The Cards have had sluggish pre-conference seasons the past three years, and in each case, they contended for the Big East title (winning it twice). This year should be no different. With a healthy backcourt and quickly developing young talent like Peyton Siva, it’s just a matter of time.
Mississippi State seems to be rounding into form. After head scratching losses to Rider and Richmond, the Bulldogs have started putting it together, winning four consecutive games by double digits, including blowouts of DePaul and UCLA. While the Renardo Sidney eligibility controversy continues, MSU got some good news this week when 7-1 center John Riek became eligible. Riek is a potential high NBA draft pick with a ridiculous 8-foot wingspan. Put that next to shot blocking demon Jarvis Varnardo and you have one imposing front line. If they get Sidney back, watch out, a Final Four run is not unreasonable.
Biggest Dud – UCLA
We knew this season would be tough for Coach Ben Howland’s Bruins. But we didn’t think it would be this tough. Of course, losing five early draft entries in a two-year period and playing a grueling early schedule explains it well. The truth is that UCLA simply hasn’t found a ballhandler to replace departed Darren Collison, and no one has stepped up to be the go-to scorer. Thankfully for the Bru-Crew, the Pac 10 is down this year and this young team will have a chance to turn things around in conference play.
Best Player – Wesley Johnson
Not John Wall, you ask? Wall is special for sure. And by year’s end, he may occupy this spot. But he simply turns the ball over too much to be tabbed as top candidate for player of the year. Instead, we’ll go with the best player on the team that looks the best so far. Johnson leads the Cuse in scoring (17 ppg), rebounding (8 rpg) and blocked shots (2.2 bpg). But it’s his presence as an electric dunker and the long-armed disrupter in the 2-3 zone that really spurs the Orange attack.
Best Game – UK 64 UConn 61
This one’s a no brainer. A star-studded Madison Square Garden crowd. Old coaching rivals going toe to toe. Two of basketball’s regal programs in a rare early season out of conference clash. Photo finish. The brilliance of John Wall. It will be tough to top this one all year.
