The Kentucky Wildcats advanced to the SEC Tournament championship game after an impressive 74-45 victory over 13th ranked Tennessee, avenging a February loss to the Vols in Knoxville.
UK was led by a huge DeMarcus Cousins performance of 19 points and 15 boards, while John Wall controlled the tempo from start to finish and created offense seemingly any time the Cats needed it.
The Big Picture
With every passing day in March, the picture comes more into focus for this Kentucky Wildcats team. The picture we speak of is the Cats’ postseason destiny.
What will be their ultimate fate?
We know, of course, that this team has the talent to win it all. But the margin for error is thinner than many in the Big Blue Nation would like to believe.
As we see them, here are the knowns and unknowns that should dictate the future of this Wildcats squad.
Known Commodities
Kentucky right now is the most talented team in college basketball. It is difficult to argue to the contrary. They possess great depth and very little dropoff in overall athleticism when going to the bench.
The Cats consistently get great performances from an array of supporting cast members, and on any given night, there is more than one Kentucky player who can hurt you.
Wall’s spectacular guard play and Cousins’ domination of the interior are the highlights. Spot shooting from Darnell Dodson, Eric Bledsoe and Darius Miller are also wild cards that can kill a team when they least expect it.
But this team is much more than that. They can dominate the glass, play suffocating halfcourt defense, and show the ability to go on huge spurts, as evidenced Saturday in their decisive 14-0 second half run to bury Tennesee.
Known Unknowns
The unknowns about this team are many.
Can Kentucky hit enough perimeter shots to keep defenses honest? Will the effort and mental focus of such a young group be able to hold out for a deep tourney run? Is Calipari a good enough Xs and Os coach to get this team through the tense moments of a white knuckler in the Big Dance? And will this team ever solve a zone?
We don’t know the answers. To be perfectly frank, we doubt the Cats will have the right answers to all these questions. This team makes a lot of serious fundamental mistakes. And free throw shooting continues to be abysmal for stretches.
But the bottom line is that Kentucky just beat a top 15 team (and a near certain 3 or 4 seed in the NCAA tournament) by 29 points on a neutral floor.
Even when the pieces are not all in place, there is enough there to overcome UK’s considerable deficits.
BBL’s Take
Sunday Kentucky will meet the winner of Vanderbilt and Mississippi State for the right to a 26th SEC tourney title. Win that game and this UK steam roller will head to the tournament with a number one seed and a favorable draw.
We still see an early exit as a definite possibility, depending on the opponent. But things could just as easily go the other way.
The Wildcats’ plot continues to thicken.
We won’t jump to any conclusions after watching Kentucky fall to Tennessee 74-65 Saturday afternoon in Knoxville.
Sure, there are plenty of eyebrow raisers about the way Kentucky played. But all in all, this was not an extremely damaging loss. The Cats may drop a spot in the polls, but nothing more. Their No. 1 seed resume wasn’t tarnished, and they still have two more chances to clinch an SEC regular season championship.
Nonetheless, the BBL offers our thoughts on Saturday’s loss.
Why They Lost
The primary reason for Kentucky’s defeat is a very simple one. The Cats shot the ball woefully from start to finish.
You won’t win many games when you shoot 2 for 22 from beyond the three-point arc and 35% from the field overall. You also won’t win many games on the road against ranked opponents when you get behind by as many as 19 points in the second half.
The fact that Kentucky tied the game and was in a position to possibly win it is, if anything, a testament to the fight in this group. And don’t believe any of the pundits who will try to say that UK crawled back into this game on talent alone.
Kentucky played excellent halfcourt defense in the game’s final 15 minutes, rebounded well and showed a combination of determination and heart that is frankly rare for a team led by underclassmen. Couple this with the fact that UK was playing an early Saturday game on the road after a late game Thursday night, and it really is remarkable how it all went down.
But let’s also give some credit to Tennessee and coach Bruce Pearl. The Vols defended well and executed another well devised gameplan of slowing the tempo and looking for scoring options late on each shot clock. They got good contributions from 10 different players, and really played unselfishly, getting some great interior passes for buckets late in the game.
Cause for Concern
No secret here. Kentucky has to find a way to knock down perimeter jumpers.
They will be zoned relentlessly by every opponent from here on out. Good decision making from John Wall and UK’s ability to attack the offensive glass will help, but at some point, someone has to step up and make defenses respect UK from outside.
At times, we thought Eric Bledsoe, Darius Miller or Darnell Dodson could be the guy to do it. But this has just not panned out. Dodson has faded badly. His body seems worn out and he doesn’t have the same quickness on his release. He’ll need to get stronger next year if he is to become a big time scoring option. Miller, while hitting only one of five from three, stepped up and scored some big baskets during the Cats big second half push. Bledsoe chipped in nine points and five boards, but was hot and cold for most of the day.
Unfortunately, John Calipari decided not to give DeAndre Liggins a lot of good minutes. Liggins made a nice move to the hoop and hit a runner early in the game, but was essentially not heard from the rest of the game. We’d like to see him get a few more of Bledsoe’s minutes, given Eric’s poor shooting and penchant for turnovers.
Signs of Promise
All in all, the Cats performance wasn’t too far off what has become the median—another double double from DeMarcus Cousins, a solid yeoman performance from Patrick Patteson and spectacular plays and heady leadership from Wall. It was mostly the supporting cast that left a lot to be desired.
Perhaps one of the most encouraging takeaways from the Tennessee loss came in a one line quote from Wall after the game. “Just imagine two weeks from now, if we lost this game, our season’s over with,” he told reporters.
It’s hard to make a big deal about such a small comment. But the BBL thinks this speaks volumes about where this young team’s mindset is. These Cats are not motivated by a desire to do anything less than win the national championship. And their gutty comeback—spurred by Wall’s intensity—reflected this sentiment.
Tennessee is a deep and talented team. They’ve beaten top ranked Kansas already this season, and showed they can play with anyone. UK shouldn’t hang their heads on this one. The Cats close out the regular season with a road date at Georgia and a home tilt with Florida. They’ll need a few days rest and a short memory. All goals remain intact and all possibilities are still open. The road only gets tougher from here.
The stage is set for a memorable night in Lexington, Kentucky.
If you didn’t see it, the Kentucky faithful created a scene this morning at ESPN’s College Gameday, putting 20,000 plus fans in Rupp Arena by 10 am.
Kentucky will meet Tennesee in less than an hour, in what should be one of the Cats stiffest tests, on paper, of the entire season. This is an excellent chance for the Cats to solidify their No. 1 seed resume in the eyes of the nation, and send a message to the rest of college basketball that they are for real.
Here are the keys to the game:
John Wall and Eric Bledsoe must make good decisions. One of the BBL’s concerns all year has been the mistake prone styles of the freshman backcourt duo. Sometimes it seems as if these two haven’t progressed very much with their ability to recognize what the defense is giving them. Both seem to have only one speed—turbo—and it has gotten them into trouble. If Wall and Bledsoe can manage tempo and take only what’s available on offense, Kentucky will be in good shape. Tennessee is sure to run some fullcourt pressure, but that could be a recipe for highlight reel, fast break funk for the Wildcats.
Kentucky will need to keep Tennessee from getting easy transition buckets and points in the paint. The Vols simply do not have a good shooting team. They have no pure shooters who can beat you consistently from deep. And their bigs are mostly finesse players. But they are long and athletic and have some guys who can slash and create shots around the rim. UT will likely pull Wayne Chism and Kenny Hall away from the basket on offense, and force DeMarcus Cousins, Patrick Patterson and Daniel Orton to defend on the perimeter. If Tennessee consistently penetrates and sends guys to the rim to crash the offensive glass, they could make things interesting.
Kentucky should work the low post on offense in every halfcourt set. There is currently no one in the college game with a back to the basket offensive game like Big Cuz. No one. UK should feed him early and often. Cousins is a good passing big man, too, and if he is doubled, UK could have a field day getting cutters open in the paint. The overall team size and rebounding ability of Kentucky will play an important role, too. This is the type of game where even Ramon Harris and Perry Stevenson could get some easy garbage buckets and layups as UT tries to collapse on Kentucky’s big men.
UK needs to show swagger and killer instinct. The Cats are confident. There will be a truly historic crowd on hand tonight and an environment capable of showing America the absolute height of college hoops excitement. The young Cats will need to overcome any early jitters and play with a sense of urgency and high energy. If they can build a big lead, we expect John Calipari to step on the gas to make a statement. There is no love loss between Coach Cal and Tennessee head man Bruce Pearl. This could be a golden opportunity for UK to show they can put even good team’s away.
BBL’s Take. Kentucky has every advantage. Tennessee plays an up-tempo pressing style. They want to run and showcase their athleticism. But they are lacking good ballhandlers and have no dead eye shooters. If they try to press UK into mistakes, they may see things get ugly, considering Kentucky’s track team personnel and what should be a raucous home crowd. If UT elects to slow it down and zone the Cats in a halfcourt game, DeAndre Liggins and Darnell Dodson will need to shoot well and the backcourt will need to keep mistakes to a minimum. We think even in this style of game, the Vols will struggle to score enough to win. We like the Cats chances of a big double digit victory, and frankly don’t see Tennessee being able to keep this one tight to the final horn. But stranger things have happened.
